TWO CLUMNS ON IRAQ: THE SUNNIS AND THE SHI’ITES AND THE SAD(R)ISTS…BIG TROUBLE LOOMING
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63D2X020100414
Iraqi Shi’ite blocs inch toward power-sharing deal
Reuters) – Talks on an alliance between Iraq’s two main Shi’ite Muslim blocs to form the next government appear to be nearing a conclusion, with the main sticking point being how to nominate a prime minister, officials said.
A hotly contested but inconclusive general election on March 7 brought Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition 89 seats, two behind the cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.
The results must still be certified.
Allawi’s group won broad backing from minority Sunnis who dominated Iraq under Saddam Hussein and whose resentment at their loss of influence helped fuel a violent insurgency and years of sectarian warfare after the 2003 U.S. invasion.
A Shi’ite alliance that deprived Allawi’s supporters of a say in picking the next prime minister could reignite Sunni frustrations, just as Iraq emerges from the worst of the bloodshed and strikes multibillion-dollar deals with oil firms that could turn it into a top crude producer.
Maliki’s State of Law alliance has been in merger talks with the other main Shi’ite grouping, the Iran-friendly Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which gained 70 seats. Together, the two could have a working majority in the 325-seat parliament.
“I think we are in the final stages of putting together the last touches before announcing this alliance,” said Ali al-Adeeb, a close ally of Maliki. “I think within the next few days, we will announce this alliance.”
But the party of anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, which accounts for about 40 of INA’s seats, has made it clear it does not want Maliki reappointed. Maliki sent Iraqi troops backed by U.S. firepower to crush Sadr’s paramilitary Mehdi Army in 2008. Sadrist opposition has dimmed Maliki’s chances of a second term.
The prospect of lengthy government-forming talks has been overshadowed by the threat of attacks from a stubborn Sunni Islamist insurgency that continues to kill dozens each month in suicide bombings and shootings.
Protracted coalition talks after the last election in December 2005 allowed the sectarian civil war to take hold.
JOINT COMMITTEE TO DECIDE
While the question of who will be prime minister was still up in the air, the INA and State of Law have moved close enough that representatives say a deal could come within days.
“In principle we … have agreed on forming one coalition,” Amar Tuma, a lawmaker from Fadhila, a party in the INA.
Tuma said a committee has been formed with equal representation from both State of Law and INA to “settle all disputes” and create a mechanism to select a prime minister.
Khalid al-Asadi, a State of Law leader, said Maliki remained its pick for prime minister, but a compromise was possible.
“An agreement could be made on Maliki himself or it could be on another candidate,” Asadi said. “We … will not impose on others the prime minister we nominate.”
The next government will have its work cut out.
Iraq needs massive investment to rebuild infrastructure shattered by decades of war, sanctions and underinvestment.
Sadrists were more non-committal about prospects for a deal.
Talks were taking place “to create an initial understanding in preparation to form the cornerstone of a partnership government,” said one of them, Qusay al-Suhail.
A lawmaker from Iraq’s Kurdish minority, which could play a kingmaker role, said a Shi’ite alliance would speed the formation of a government.
“They were one bloc in the 2005 election. So merging together is possible,” said Muhsin al-Sadoun.
Yahya al-Kubaisy, a researcher at the Iraq Institute for Strategic Studies, said the Shi’ite groups were moving toward a deal because they could not countenance the post of prime minister going to a non-Shi’ite.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/14/AR2010041404070.html
Iraq’s Ayad Allawi warns of sectarian war, says U.S. must aid reconciliation
By Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, April 15, 2010; A11
BAGHDAD — Former prime minister Ayad Allawi, whose bloc won the largest number of seats in Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary elections, warned Wednesday that the country could slide into a sectarian war if his group is shut out of the next government and said the United States should work more aggressively to prevent that from happening.
Allawi, a secular Shiite who attracted the votes of millions of Sunnis and some Shiites, said in an interview in his Baghdad office that his Iraqiya bloc represents the change Iraqis crave after years of sectarian violence. But he accused Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, of using his power to alter the electoral outcome and preserve the status quo.
If the United States and the United Nations do not step up during what is widely expected to be a months-long political vacuum, they will leave behind an unstable nation and region when they depart, he said.
Despite his win, Allawi, who wants his old post back, may be left with nothing if Maliki’s State of Law bloc joins forces in the next parliament with the Iraqi National Alliance, a mostly religious Shiite coalition. Allawi warned that a religious Shiite government would lead to renewed bloodshed.
“I told them, ‘Don’t embark on this course,’ ” Allawi said, referring to a meeting with the Shiite alliance. “It’s going to be very dangerous, it’s going to be counterproductive, and the backlash will be severe. The whole foundation of whatever infant democracy we’ve built will be ruined.”
Allawi said that he has sought to meet with Maliki to discuss the process of forming a government but that no date has been set.
U.S. officials have largely restricted their involvement to privately urging leaders to act responsibly as the political jockeying continues, in some cases spilling into the streets. At least 90 people were killed in attacks over five days last month.
Allawi said the United States has done little to help achieve goals spelled out under the George W. Bush administration. Those include forging reconciliation through political settlements, amending Iraq’s constitution, enacting legislation to regulate the oil industry, and being more judicious about purging loyalists of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party from government. Sunni leaders say Shiite politicians have used such action against alleged Baathists to weaken Sunnis’ political clout.
“In the interim — as America is still here, and as America still enjoys respectability in this country — they should focus on political reforms and use their offices here to forge reconciliation,” Allawi said. “There should have been much more criticism of the de-Baathification. All of it was without any foundation.”
Allawi’s bloc has been the main target of a policy instituted by the United States in 2003 to purge the government of officials loyal to the outlawed Baath Party. The Accountability and Justice Commission, which is run by rival Shiite politicians, purged more than 70 members of the bloc before the elections and is now trying to remove at least four others. More than 40 members of the group are in jails in Baghdad with no contact with the outside world, Allawi said. At least one victorious Iraqiya candidate is in jail, and four others are the subject of arrest warrants, he added.
“I said to the Americans: ‘Security is not only a function of the number of troops you have. It’s changing the political landscape — creating reconciliation, implementing reconciliation,’ ” Allawi said. “I said, and still believe, even if you raise the security forces to a million, it wouldn’t matter.”
On Wednesday, Allawi sent a delegation to neighboring Iran in an effort to garner support from the Islamic republic’s leadership, which plays a quiet but crucial role in Iraqi politics, and to say that the Iraqiya bloc would not be its enemy, he said.
“The delegation is there to explain to the Iranians that we are not warmongers and we want a very sound and good relationship with Iran and the rest of the neighbors,” he said. “But also we are not willing to accept interference in internal matters, just as we don’t want to interfere in Iranian internal matters.”
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