YORAM ETTINGER, ISRAEL’S FINEST DIPLOMAT CHALLENGES THE DEMOGRAPHIC DOOMSAYERS
Ettinger challenges widely accepted demographic figures
By GIL SHEFLER The Jerusalem Post 12/17/2010 03:18
http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=199835
Demographic dissident: “The gap between Jewish and Arab growth is closing
and shifting in the advantage of the Jews.”
When Yoram Ettinger read The Jerusalem Post’s story last month quoting
demographer Prof. Sergio DellaPergola of the Hebrew University saying that
Jews had become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean
Sea, he immediately asked to present his counterargument.
Over the past decade, the former diplomat turned amateur demographer has
devoted a large part of his time to advocating the thesis that the figures
for the number of Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have been
grossly exaggerated.
“The momentum is Jewish,” he explained over a PowerPoint presentation at a
café in Tel Aviv on Thursday.
“The gap between Jewish and Arab growth is closing and shifting in the
advantage of the Jews. Other demographers’ mistake is in assuming that
demographic trends will be more of the same.”
At the heart of Ettinger’s claim is a 1997 tally conducted by the
Palestinian Authority that he said made several errors: First, it counted
the population of Arab east Jerusalem twice; Second, it included hundreds of
thousands of Palestinian students permanently living abroad. Together this
inflated the count by 615,000 people, Ettinger said.
“There are trends affected by age differences,” he said. “He says the
Palestinian fertility rate is decreasing, and the Jewish one is rising. The
average number of kids in Israel for Arabs is 3.7 and for Jews it is 2.9.
This is may be a much less drastic difference then in the past but still, he
completely ignores one aspect of those numbers: The average age of
Palestinians and Arabs is much younger then for Jews, so the proportion of
those having children is much greater than for Jews. Even if fertility rates
were even, there would be more births in the Arab population, and this
demographic argument is alien to Ettinger. For the same reasons there are
also fewer deaths among the Arab populace, because it isn’t as old. The
death rate for Arabs is half that for Jews. Thus, the Arab population is
growing fast.”
DellaPergola said he was aware of flaws in the PA’s count in 1997,
particularly its inclusion of Palestinians students abroad, but insisted
these were in the tens not hundreds of thousands. “Fourteen thousand at the
very best,” he said.
Moreover, the professor said this aberration was factored into his current
calculations.
DellaPergola agrees that the gap in population growth between Jews and Arabs
in the land between the sea and the river is narrowing, but is convinced
Ettinger’s claims are exaggerated and his motives are ideological.
“He believes in Palestinian malice and my stupidity,” the professor said. In
Ramallah there are politicians, absolutely, but there are also
professionals.”
Ettinger rejects such assertions. He admits being a member of Likud, but
said he is no longer active in politics. The ex-diplomat vows his work is
scientific and impartial.
“There’s no room for pessimism and fatalism in demography,” Ettinger said.
“Everything must be done with levelheadedness.”
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IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il
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