YORAM ETTINGER:DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN ISRAEL ….A NEW STUDY DEBUNKS THE GLOOM AND DOOM
“Second Thought: US-Israel Initiative,” Jerusalem, Israel Demographic Trends in the Land of Israel
The most comprehensive study on Jewish-Arab demographics was published on
January 15, 2011 by Yakov Faitelson, Institute for Zionist Strategies.
The study sheds light on the surge of Jewish demography, especially among
secular Israeli Jews, and on the sharp decline of Arab natural growth and
population growth, as a result of a most successful Arab integration into
Israel’s infrastructures of modernity.
No ground to the claim that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the
Jordan River: In 2011 there is a 66% Jewish majority – in the combined area
of pre-1967 Israel, Judea and Samaria – which benefits from a demographic
tailwind.
Faitelson’s findings support the conclusion of a World Bank September 2006
study which documented a 32% “inflation” in the number of Arab births, as
reported by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.
Demographic Trends in the Land of Israel (excerpts)
Yakov Faitelson
January 15, 2011
1. “Despite 120 years of demographic calamity projections, the Jewish
population in the Land of Israel succeeded to grow from a 5% minority to a
60% majority.”
2. “The expanded Jewish population (6,122,000) grows faster than the
highest scenario of the 2007 projection made by Israel’s Central Bureau of
Statistics. The Arab population (1,573,000) grows in accordance with the
lowest scenario.”
3. “According to the UN Population Division, the overall Middle East
fertility rate peaked during the 1950s (6.33 births per woman) and declined
gradually to 2.95 births in 2010.”
4. “The Jewish fertility rate has risen since 1995, reaching 2.9 in 2010.”
5. “In 2010, the Jewish fertility rate is 63% higher than Lebanon’s, 53%
higher than Iran’s, 33% higher than Turkey’s and Kuwait’s, 23% higher than
Saudi Arabia’s, slightly higher than Egypt’s and only 7% and 4% lower than
Jordan’s and Syria’s respectively.”
6. “The growth in Jewish fertility is driven by secular and not by
religious or ultra-religious Jews. Since 2003, there has been a decline in
ultra-religious fertility…The surge in secular fertility is driven mainly
by the Olim (immigrants) from the former USSR…Their children and
grandchildren has adopted typical Israeli fertility rates. According to
Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, Israeli-born Jewish fertility rate
was over 3 births in 2009.”
7. “Israeli Arab fertility rate has collapsed since the 1970s [due to a most
successful integration into the infrastructures of education, employment,
finance, politics, culture, sports, etc.]…It declined to 3.5 births per
woman in 2009…By 2009 only 8.4% of 15 year old Arab women did not enroll
in school.”
8. “In 1995, there were 2.34 Jewish births per 1 Arab birth. In 2009-10,
there were 3.12 Jewish births per 1 Arab birth.”
9. “The demographic trends within pre-1967 Israel are identical to those in
Judea and Samaria…but, in a much faster pace. The fertility rate of Judea
and Samaria Arabs dropped from 6.44 births per woman in 1990 to 3.12 births
in 2010…lower than Israeli Arabs and substantially lower than the Jewish
fertility rate in the Jerusalem region.”
10. “Net-emigration from the Palestinian Authority was 321,239 during
2007-1994, averaging about 23,000 annually.”
11. “Mustafa Khawaja of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics:
Net-emigration in 2007 reached about 60,000…Jordan recorded 44,000 and
63,000 net-emigration, during the first eight months in 2009 and 2008
respectively, through its-controlled international passages along the Jordan
River.”
12. Professor Arnon Sofer, Haifa University, projected in 1987 that by 2000
there will be 4.2 million Jews and 3.5 million Arabs (1.5 of them in Judea
and Samaria) between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. However, in
2000, the number of Jews was 5 million and the number of Arabs was indeed
3.5 million. But, in 2000, Professor Sofer added 1 million Arabs to his
estimate of the population in Judea and Samaria.”
[Prof. Sofer, a leading “Demographer of Doom”, consistently precluded the
possibility of a wave of Aliya (Jewish migration) from the USSR, even if the
gates were to be open…]
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