RUTHFULLY YOURS

We didn’t learn from the CPAC straw poll who will be the 2012 presidential nominee. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) won the poll (in which a third of the delegates participated), as he did last year. In 2007 and 2008 Mitt Romney won the CPAC poll and lost the nomination. But the CPAC gathering did tell us some important things.

First, there is, in fact, a rationale for a run by former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. The other CPAC speeches were sorely short on foreign policy. It is jarring that those who want to be president have so little to say about transformative events. However, should he not run, it is interesting to note that Bolton sees promise in another candidate. Chris Cillizza reports:

Asked after his speech whether he felt there had been enough discussion of Egypt at CPAC, Bolton demurred. “I don’t want to comment on the other speakers,” he said. “I saw Governor Pawlenty last night and I thought the points he made were right on target.” However, he reiterated his call for more national security debate. “I think all of the Republican candidates basically share the same broad principles and it’s a very well-qualified field,” he said. “What I want do is have a more intense national debate to flesh their positions out.”

Second, New Jersey Chris Christie, who didn’t show up (but will be giving a speech in D.C. on Feb. 16), came in third in the straw poll with 6 percent. The mere mention of his name by another potential candidate, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, elicited cheers. Should he change his mind and enter the race I suspect he quickly would become the front runner.

Third, Pawlenty and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) exceeded expectations and suggested that there are plenty of “not Romney” candidates who can combine a genial personality with solid conservative positions.

Fourth, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels gave a wonkish speech, but sure didn’t seem like he understood the requirements of a presidential run (e.g., appealing to social conservatives). By contrast, Barbour gave a speech showing him to be no policy wonk, but cleverly appealing to key constituent groups. (Jonathan Martin of Politico hit the nail on the head, observing: “There is a name for a Republican governor who wants it known that he walked-the-walk on spending, restricted abortion and welcomes tea partiers into the party: presidential candidate.”)

And finally, Romney showed himself to be the weakest frontrunner since, well, maybe Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Romney, unlike Giuliani, has a well-oiled campaign team and a strategy to focus on early primaries. However, there is no sign that he understands the enormity of his RomneyCare problem or has come up with a credible response.

With Romney hobbled and Sarah Palin most likely out of the picture, the Republican primary is as wide open as any in recent memory. In Iowa one could easily imagine a Pawlenty, Barbour or Thune running well, and thereby jumping from the pack to the top “not Romney” slot. And those potential candidates on the sidelines should consider getting in the game — there is plenty of daylight in which to run.