THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: GADI ADELMAN
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.9209/pub_detail.asp
Since the uprising in Egypt and the fall of Mubarak I, along with many others have been saying that the time is ripe for the Palestinians to show the world that they were ready to govern; and they may ask the U.N. for recognition of statehood.
For those of us who read the news out of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, it appears more and more that this question of statehood will be coming to fruition in September.
It’s not that surprising that the media here in the west isn’t covering more of this story when it can be found in publications throughout Europe, but it’s another thing when you see it being reported by China.
Just the other day I ran across a story on news.xinhuanet.com, a Chinese news website. The story was titled “France to recognize Palestinian state in September: official”. The article explained,
A senior Palestinian official said Saturday that he had received a promise from France that it will in September recognize a Palestinian state on the territories occupied by Israel in 1967.
“France postpones its recognition of a Palestinian state because it is exerting efforts to convince the entire European countries to recognize the state,” Shaath said.
He noted that France is leading an initiative in the European Union (EU) which aims at activating the EU in sponsoring the peace process and adopting an initiative based on recognizing the state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Why would this be on a Chinese website or would a better question be why we are in the U.S. not hearing more of this? It actually does say something that the Chinese are paying attention to this, shouldn’t we be as well?
Ynetnews out of Israel reported back in February,
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton on Tuesday said the international community still sought to achieve a peace deal and a Palestinian state by September, despite the region’s political turmoil.
“It’s a timeframe that everybody has signed up to,” she told reporters in Jerusalem ahead of talks with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas in the West Bank town of Ramallah. (AFP)
The Jerusalem Post reported Thursday of last week that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is opposed to unilateral recognition,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday voiced her government’s opposition to a possible United Nations resolution creating an independent Palestinian state. “The Federal Republic of Germany is championing a two-state solution…Any kind of unilateral recognition does not promote this goal. This will be our position in September,” she said, during a joint press conference here with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Just two weeks ago, Former Israeli Prime Minister and current Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak referred to it as a “diplomatic tsunami”. As reported by Ha’aretz,
Speaking at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv on Sunday, Barak said that as that September deadline nears “we stand to face a diplomatic tsunami that the majority of the public is unaware of,” Barak said, adding that there was “an international movement that may recognize a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders.”
“It’s a mistake not to notice this tsunami. Israel’s delegitimization is in sight, even if citizens don’t see it. It is a very dangerous situation, one that requires action,” the defense minister said, adding that “diplomatic initiative” would “reduce risks down the road.”
So what does all this mean? France yes, Germany no, America… Who knows? This will undoubtedly be voted on by the U.N. Security Council come September so let’s examine the members. The Council is composed of five permanent members China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. There are also ten non-permanent members that changes yearly. This year’s members are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany, Portugal, Brazil, India, South Africa, Colombia, Lebanon, Gabon and Nigeria.
I am not going to even begin to guess how each country may vote on such a proposition, I think you can look at the list of nations and have a pretty good idea yourself. But why is the Palestinian Authority (PA) pushing for this now?
There are a lot of reasons and the U.S. is a big part of it. All the turmoil that is currently gripping the Middle East gives the PA world sympathy. It gives them the opportunity to say “look at all these countries around us starting over, revolutions, new democracies and new governments, what about us”?
The PA also knows that this has to be done not only while the time is ripe for “change” in the region, they know, more importantly it must be done before 2012. Again there are several reasons, but the PA must strike while the iron is hot and who knows what the region will be like come 2012.
One thing that is certain, 2012 is the U.S. Presidential election and the PA knows that the world’s eyes will be watching the U.S. and its candidates rather than the West Bank or Gaza. Then of course is the obvious, why wait and take a chance that Obama may not win a second term?
Right now the PA, like the rest of us, know where the administration stands when it comes to Israel and the Middle East and it may not be that way in 2012 depending on who wins the election.
Obama also knows that it would be political suicide to have to choose one way or the other. He cannot afford to lose the Jewish vote (78% in 2008 election) or those that support Israel by voting for a Palestinian state, but then again, he can’t afford to throw away all he has worked for with his “Muslim outreach” programs either.
It is for these reasons that I think the U.S. will take the easy way out and abstain if and when such a vote were to take place.
The ramifications of such a vote passing are beyond explanation. The main issue at hand would be allowing a Palestinian state according to the pre-1967 (Six Day war) borders.
As the map above shows, currently Israel has already withdrawn to most of the 1967 borders. The problem would be Jerusalem which is shown in the map below.
If Israel were to withdraw to the pre-1967 lines all of East Jerusalem would have to be turned over to the new Palestine.
Haaretz reported that the Foreign Ministry “informed the 15 members of the United Nations Security Council last week, as well as several other prominent European Union countries, that if the Palestinian Authority persists in its efforts to gain recognition in September as a state within the 1967 borders, Israel would respond with a series of unilateral steps of its own.”
For those who have not had the experience or pleasure to visit Israel, you have to understand the total size of this country. Now consider protecting these borders from enemies who want nothing more than to “make the Mediterranean Sea red with the blood of Jews”.
Over a year ago I touched on the issue of ‘land for peace’ when I wrote about the current administrations relationship with Israel. In that article I attempted to explain what happened the last time Israel went down this road,
Let’s look back at the Camp David meeting in 2000 between President Clinton, then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and the Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak offered to withdraw from 97 percent of the West Bank and 100 percent of the Gaza Strip.
In addition, he agreed to dismantle 63 isolated settlements. In exchange for the 5 percent annexation of the West Bank, Israel would increase the size of the Gaza territory by roughly a third. Barak also made previously unthinkable concessions on Jerusalem, agreeing that Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem would become the capital of the new state. The Palestinians would maintain control over their holy places and have “religious sovereignty” over the Temple Mount. According to U.S. peace negotiator Dennis Ross, Israel offered to create a Palestinian state that was contiguous, and not a series of cantons.
Even in the case of the Gaza Strip, which must be physically separate from the West Bank unless Israel were to be cut into non-contiguous pieces, a solution was devised whereby an overland highway would connect the two parts of the Palestinian state without any Israeli checkpoints or interference.
The proposal also addressed the refugee issue, guaranteeing them the right of return to the Palestinian state and reparations from a $30 billion international fund that would be collected to compensate them. Arafat walked away from the table and said no deal.
Now consider this, the Egyptian military transition government will hold its legislative election in September with the presidential election following in November,
“The presidential election will be held two months after legislative election scheduled in September,” said military spokesman General Mahmoud Shahin as quoted by AFP on March 30.
An Egyptian election in September? What wonderful timing for a vote by the UN on Palestine. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) will be at the center of these elections contrary to what we heard via the main stream media during the fall of Mubarak. As reported in the Egypt Uprising news,
Kamal al-Halbawi, a senior member of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, says that the Muslim Brotherhood will run candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
An article on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt from March 25 by Frontpage Magazine quotes Emad Gad,
“The main problem here is the next parliament will write the next Constitution. So then the fanatics and the Muslim Brotherhood will govern us for decades,” said Emad Gad of the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
The article goes on to explain,
The Muslim Brotherhood says its “Freedom and Justice Party” will be formally created in the coming weeks, though the chairman, Mohammed Katatni, tries to cast it as an independence party. The Brotherhood’s leadership admits creating it and Katanani is a senior Brotherhood member.
This means that the parliament’s two strongest parties going into the parliamentary elections are the NDP and the Muslim Brotherhood, leaving the secular democratic forces without a strong voice.
Do we really need to wonder what would happen with the Israel/Egypt peace agreement if the Muslim Brotherhood gains any power in the Egyptian Parliament? How long would it take after a MB win and a Palestinian state before we see a correlated attack on Israel?
All of these groups have the same wish for Israel and the Jews. Hamas, the current elected leaders of Gaza have written in their Charter,
Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it. (The Martyr, Imam Hassan al-Banna, of blessed memory).
There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors.
The Hamas Charter also quotes the Hadith,
“The Day of Judgment will not come about until Muslims fight the Jews (killing the Jews), when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Muslims, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him. Only the Gharkad tree, would not do that because it is one of the trees of the Jews.” (related by al-Bukhari and Muslim).
Let us not forget that this is the same group of people that danced in the streets and handed out candy on 9/11 as well as just last month after the massacre of the Fogel family including their 3 month old infant at the hands of terrorists.
Is this a group you would trust to hold a “peace” agreement? Can you imagine the outcome if Israel were made to withdraw to its pre-1967 borders?
Back in the 1970’s there was a terror group. This was an offshoot of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), the PLO that later became the current Palestinian Authority (PA). That group was responsible for scores of terrorism and death including the massacre of the entire Israeli Olympic Team during the 1972 Olympics in Berlin, Germany.
The name of that group would be fitting for what may be coming… Black September.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Gadi Adelman is a freelance writer and lecturer on the history of terrorism and counterterrorism. He grew up in Israel, studying terrorism and Islam for 35 years after surviving a terrorist bomb in Jerusalem in which 7 children were killed. Since returning to the U. S., Gadi teaches and lectures to law enforcement agencies as well as high schools and colleges. He can be heard every Thursday night at 8PM est. on his own radio show “AmericaAkbar” on Blog Talk Radio. He can be reached through his website gadiadelman.com.
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