THE REAL DEMOGRAPHICS IN ISRAEL: YORAM ETTINGER
As a follow up to your groundbreaking initiative, I’ve attached the groundbreaking PowerPoint presentation on Jewish and Arab demography west of the Jordan River, which refutes conventional wisdom.
1. Demographic perceptions have played a key role in shaping Israel’s national security policy and in eroding the level of confidence in the future of the Jewish State. But, what if these (mis)perceptions have been shaped by drastically erroneous assumptions?!
2. The attached PowerPoint presentation exposes dramatic flaws of conventional demographic “wisdom,” which has been refuted annually by Palestinian and Israeli documentation of births, deaths and migration.
3. Thus, anyone suggesting that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River, that there is a demographic machete at the throat of the Jewish State and that the Jewish State must concede Jewish Geography in order to secure Jewish Demography, is either grossly mistaken or outrageously misleading! While it is legitimate to debate the future of the mountain ridges of Judea & Samaria on security, historical, moral and democratic grounds, it is not legitimate to draft groundless demographic numbers in order to scare Israel into concessions.
4. The attached PowerPoint presentation documents the systematic squandering of Western taxpayers’ money by the Palestinian Authority, which receives annual foreign aid, based – partly – on a highly inflated number of Palestinians in Gaza, Judea & Samaria.
It replaces groundless fatalism with reality-based optimism, which upgrades the state-of-mind of Israelis and Israel’s supporters. Enhanced optimism contributes to national security, Aliya, diplomacy, tourism, overseas investments and long-term planning.
It highlights well-documented data – instead of refuted numbers – as a basis for public debate.
It avoids hastiness – in fear of a non-existing “demographic typhoon” – and promotes a deliberate approach to Israel’s national security challenges.
Equally critical, the breakthrough demographic findings constitute an instrument fighting the insidious Arab-phobia, which is nurtured – mostly – by the illogical fear of Arab demography.
5. According to the groundbreaking study, the Jewish majority west of the Jordan River has been robust and long-term since the 1960s – 66% without Gaza and 57% including Gaza – compared with a 33% minority in 1947 and an 8% minority in 1900. Arab population growth rate has declined steadily in Judea & Samaria due to diminished fertility rate and (primarily) due to high net-emigration (well over 10,000 annually since 1950 and escalating recently). The annual number of Jewish births has increased by 56% since 1995, while the annual number of Arab births has stabilized during the same period. Within the “Green Line,” the decline in Arab fertility rate is due to a most successful integration into Israel’s infrastructures of employment, education, medicine, finance, politics, sports, arts, etc.! For the first time since 1948, there is a convergence between Jewish and Arab fertility rates in Jerusalem, while Arabs trend downward and Jews upward.
6. There is a demographic problem, but it’s not lethal, and the Jewish majority is solid and benefitting from a tailwind.
7. The current potential of Aliya – awaiting realization by Israel’s government and the Jewish Agency – further bolsters the future of Jewish demography west of the Jordan River.
8. The study is top heavy on documented facts, and devoid of assumptions and postulations. It enhances one’s education on a most critical national security issue – demography.
9. Attached you’ll find a one page summary of the key findings, as well as recent OpEds on the subject and a review conducted by Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, the leading demographer at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington, DC.
10. The PowerPoint presentation is based on a study which was published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/MSPS65.pdf). It has been presented at the Herzliya Conference (the most prestigious annual Israeli national security conference), Knesset and Congressional committees, Jewish Agency Board of Governors, Israel’s National Security Council, Mossad, Military Intelligence, Israel’s universities and editorial boards, etc.
The American-Israel Demographic Research Group
October 2010
1. AIDRG documents a 1.25MN (43%) inflation in the number of Arabs in Gaza, Judea & Samaria (2.85MN, not 4.10MN) and a 66% inflation in the number of Arabs in Judea & Samaria alone (1.6MN, not 2.5MN). The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) census includes some 400,000 overseas residents, 200,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are also counted as Israeli Arabs, ignores about 200,000 emigrants (since 1997), etc. The World Bank documents a 32% gap between the PCBS and the Palestinian Ministry of Education documented–number of Arab births.
2. A 66% Jewish majority on 98.5% of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean (without Gaza). A 60% Jewish majority west of the Jordan River compared with a 33% and an 8% minority in 1947 and 1900 respectively.
3. “Green Line” Arab fertility rate has declined 20 years faster than projected. J&S Arab fertility has decreased to 3.2 births per woman.
4. A 50% rise in annual Israeli Jewish births during 1995-2009 (from 80,400 to 121,000), while the number of annual Arab births stabilized (39,000). The secular Jewish sector plays a key role. Arab-Jewish gap of fertility (births per woman) reduced from 6 in 1969 to 0.6 in 2009!
5. Arab-Jewish fertility rates have converged in Jerusalem – 3.9 births per woman – for the first time since 1948.
6. Net annual emigration of over 10,000 has characterized Judea & Samaria (mostly) and Gaza Arabs since 1950: 10,000 in 2004, 16,000 in 2005, 25,000 in 2006 and 2007, 28,000 in 2008 and 29,000 in 2009.
7. Israel has benefited from annual Aliya since 1882. Since 1948, Israel’s demographers have projected no waves of Aliya (immigration).
8. Ben Gurion was urged by Israel’s demographers to delay declaration of independence, lest the 600,000 Jews of 1948 become a minority by 1967!
9. There is a demographic problem, but it is not lethal. The demographic trend is Jewish. Anyone claiming that Israel must concede geography, in order to secure demography is either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.
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