http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/davidmalpass/2012/01/25/imf_lowers_global_growth_forecast_but_vshaped_upturn_comes_into_view
We think the possibility is increasing of a synchronized global upturn in 2012 and a V-shaped inflection point in the U.S. expansion. Since 2009, we’ve been in the muddle-through camp, disagreeing with both the double-dip and V-shaped forecasts.
* We now think that the U.S. and global upswing from the deep 2011 funk may be strong enough to create some quarters in 2012 with U.S. growth well above 3%. This type of burst in growth is normal after a recession but has been delayed in the current expansion by the long series of policy setbacks – Japan’s 2011 earthquake, the ECB’s lack of engagement until late 2011, the U.S. policy disasters (too many to name), and the 2010 oil spill,. Earlier we raised our 2012 U.S. forecast to 3% Q4/Q4. Some quarters may materially exceed that after what we think will be a subpar first quarter.