ELECTIONS ARE COMING: LINDA McMAHON RISING IN CONNECTICUT: MARY ANASTASIA O’GRADY
By MARY ANASTASIA O’GRADY
Conventional wisdom holds that Connecticut Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon—a political neophyte in a famously Democratic stronghold—has no chance of victory in November. But a Rasmussen poll released Tuesday suggests otherwise. At the very least Mrs. McMahon seems to be making it a horse race.
The Rasmussen sample, which surveyed 500 likely voters, gave the Republican from Fairfield County 49% of the vote against 46% for the heavily favored Democrat candidate, Congressman Chris Murphy. That three percent spread is the first time Mrs. McMahon has edged out her opponent in a poll, though she has been narrowing the gap for months. The Real Clear Politics average of polls, since the end of May, now favors Mr. Murphy by a measly spread of 2.6%.
The Rasmussen poll is also the first major poll released since Mrs. McMahon became the official Republican candidate, decisively beating former Republican Congressman Chris Shays in the Aug. 14 primary. Mr. Shays went down to defeat partly because his record in the House was considered too moderate for many primary voters. But Mrs. McMahon also spent heavily to crush him. The Los Angeles Times reported that the bill during primary season was “at least $12 million, much of it from her own pocket.” The former World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) executive has deep pockets and she is not afraid to shell it out. In her failed 2010 bid to win a Senate seat, she used almost $50 million of her own money.
During the primary season her ads also targeted Mr. Murphy. The Democrat is a big Obama supporter, and the McMahon campaign has been making the contest largely about the economic hardship of the past three and a half years. She also sees Mr. Murphy’s House committee attendance records as an area of vulnerability. She says he failed to show up at 80% of committee meetings where representatives discussed ways to head off the 2008 financial crisis. An ad launched on Aug. 20 asks, “If you skipped 80 percent of the meetings for your job, would you get a promotion?”
It is likely that the Rasmussen poll surprised a lot of “experts.” But Hartford Courant columnist Kevin Rennie who keeps his ear to the political ground in the Nutmeg State suggested yesterday on his Daily Ructions blog that the professionals managing the race in Connecticut saw it coming. “Insiders in both parties have been buzzing for days over campaign polls showing a considerable improvement for McMahon since she thumped Christopher Shays in their lopsided primary race and began taking aim at Murphy over the airwaves.”
One poll doesn’t make a race. But this one sure does make this race more interesting.
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