Ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa signals potentially catastrophic geo-strategic transformations. For Israel, the greatest danger stems from interpenetrating and largely unpredictable effects of war, terrorism, and revolution in the region. In essence, these plainly destabilizing effects could spawn an unprecedented and thoroughly “game-changing” kind of chaos.
Chaos in any form can play havoc with the best laid plans of nations. By definition, at least from the standpoint of national military operations, it is a constantly changing condition that can preclude “normal” and possibly indispensable security preparations. Significantly, this condition is markedly different from the “normal” chaos associated with the “fog of war.” This chaos describes a genuinely deep and wholly systemic unraveling that can itself create war.
The most obvious chaos-based perils to Israel concern the prospect of abrogated peace treaties in Cairo, and/or Amman. Following any such abrogation, which, ironically, could be the result of either regime change, or regime preservation, in those countries, certain old battle fronts could reopen. Convergent threats of war and terror could then reemerge and harden, potentially impacting any newly-emergent state of “Palestine,” and also the corollary power positions of al-Qaeda, and the Muslim Brotherhood. For the moment, at least, al-Qaeda is in a primarily adversarial stance vis-à-vis the Brotherhood, and Hamas, recently re-bonded with Fatah, is itself a direct offshoot of the Brotherhood.