IAN BREMMER: THREE TROUBLED ALLIES FOR ONE SUPERPOWER….AMERICA NEEDS ISRAEL, GREAT BRITAIN AND JAPAN….SEE NOTE PLEASE
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323442804578231870322045866.html?mod=lifestyle_newsreel
Japan, Israel and Britain are facing big problems of their own just as the U.S. needs their help
THIS IS THE HEADLINE THAT I WISH JABOTINSKY COULD SEE…..AMAZING …..RSK
There are three big unfolding stories for international politics and the global economy: The next stage of China’s rise, the continuing turmoil in the Middle East and the redesign of Europe. The three countries with the most to lose from these trends are, respectively, Japan, Israel and Britain. They also happen to be America’s most reliable allies in the world’s three most important regions. As 2013 unfolds, the special relationships that these countries enjoy with Washington won’t protect them from the worst effects of these sweeping changes. That is also bad news for U.S. foreign policy.
The further expansion of China’s political, economic and military power leaves Japan in an increasingly tough spot. The broadening and deepening of China’s consumer market creates critical opportunities for Japanese companies, but Beijing’s new assertiveness, particularly on territorial disputes involving Japan, is fueling nationalist anger inside both countries. The risk isn’t that the two countries will exchange fire but that emerging frictions will undermine the exchange of everything else, reversing the momentum in a commercial relationship that has become especially important for the buoyancy of Japan’s economy.
Daniel HorowitzChina and Japan probably won’t exchange fire— but trade could suffer.
In September, the battle over a string of contested islands in the East China Sea rattled Japan’s economy. A move by Tokyo to assert ownership of the Senkaku-Diaoyu islands ignited anti-Japanese fury inside China, and Beijing let protests burn longer and hotter than usual. In the process, Chinese protesters destroyed Japanese stores and products in several cities and launched boycotts of Japanese companies. That month, Toyota and Honda’s year-on-year sales in China were down, respectively, 49% and 41%.
Japanese policy makers know they must hedge bets on trade with China by bolstering ties elsewhere in Asia. But Japan remains dangerously exposed over the long term to its dependence for growth on Chinese markets. New Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to expand U.S.-Japanese security ties, and Washington can help defend Japan’s interests in the East China Sea. But it can’t protect Japanese companies doing business in China from the fallout over growing frictions in Chinese-Japanese relations—and that is the greatest immediate threat to Japan’s future.
Israel’s worries bear more directly on its national security. Syria’s civil war has fanned the flames of Lebanese unrest. Iran increasingly suffers from sanctions and international pressure over its nuclear program, adding to the risk that the Islamic republic will lash out in unpredictable ways that could hurt Israel. Arab governments will seek popularity at home by feeding a harder line on Israel to the ever-hungry Arab street.
The Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt may stumble in 2013 as a diplomatic partner in resolving hostilities with Hamas. Turkish and Jordanian politicians, who have traditionally been friendlier toward Israel, are now under pressure to keep their distance. And Washington, with its foreign-policy pivot to Asia, will devote less attention to the conflicts that threaten the Jewish state, even as the U.S. remains the ultimate guarantor of Israeli security.
Further north, Britons watching the debacle in the euro zone are pressing their leaders for a vote on the U.K.’s future in the European Union. According to a November Ipsos MORI poll, voters who identify as Conservatives favor leaving the EU by a margin of 58% to 37%. Tory politicians worry that if they are seen to hedge on the question, the increasingly popular U.K. Independence Party will grab a substantial share of their vote.
If Britain were to land outside the EU, the country would pay a heavier price than most can now foresee. Abandoning partners that buy half the country’s exports would make it necessary to renegotiate dozens of bilateral trade deals, and the damage to British industry would be costly. Outside the EU, Britain would lose much of its international political clout. Even if it remains a member, its unwillingness to help shape the redesign of the euro zone and fully engage on new financial regulations would leave London as a taker rather than a maker of the new rules of the European game.
The U.S. needs Japan to avoid a confrontation with China that would undermine American security and commercial interests in the world’s most economically promising region. It needs Israel to help stabilize an increasingly precarious balance of power in the Middle East and to refrain from intensifying regional tensions. It needs Britain to exert some influence within the process that will define the new Europe.
In short, in the year ahead, with Washington focused on spending cuts, the architects of U.S. policy will need to lean more heavily on steady friends to help advance our interests—at just the moment when these allies have more than enough problems of their own.
—Mr. Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group, a research and consulting firm on global political risk.
A version of this article appeared January 12, 2013, on page C2 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Three Troubled Allies, One Superpower.
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