Israel’s Final Warning on Iran by Yaakov Lappin
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4007/israel-warning-iran
With no military threat, Iran has no incentive to stop its nuclear progress. Iran might well conclude that the sanctions could disappear in the course of endless rounds of diplomacy. No one in Israel seeks war, but a central tenet of its own defense doctrine is that Israel cannot depend on any external power to deal with existential security threats.
The coming weeks probably represent the last opportunity for Iran and the international community to reach an enforceable deal that will dismantle Tehran’s nuclear weapons program, before Israel concludes that time has run out, that Iran has gotten too close to creating its first atomic bombs, and that the time for a military strike has arrived.
Despite Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s well-planned and deceptive charm offensive at the United Nations last week, so far not a single uranium-enriching centrifuge has stopped spinning in the underground nuclear facilities in Natanz and Qom. The heavy water plutonium facility at Arak is moving forward, and Iran has already amassed enough low-enriched uranium for the production of seven to nine atomic bombs.
Iran conducts test launches of its long-range Shahab-3 missiles, in 2008. |
The speech given by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the United Nations last week, in which he warned that Israel would act alone against Iran if it needed to, is an authentic warning, and serves a dual purpose.
First, the speech reintroduces a credible military threat and aims it squarely at the Islamic Republic.
This notice is important as deterrence against Iran has waned significantly since August, when President Barack Obama hesitantly climbed down from his commitment to carry out a military strike on Iran’s ally, the Syrian regime, over its use of chemical weapons to massacre civilians.
A diminished threat of military force leaves diplomatic efforts with Iran almost no chance of success: it leaves Iran with virtually no incentive to stop its nuclear progress, despite the painful economic sanctions it faces.
With no military threat, Iran might well conclude that the sanctions could disappear in the course of endless rounds of diplomacy, in which skilled Iranian negotiators would succeed in getting some of the sanctions lifted while giving up very little in return.
Many of America’s allies in the Middle East are very concerned about the lack of deterrence; and Netanyahu, keen to ensure that he has given talks with Iran all possible opportunities before taking matters into his own hands, has placed the military threat firmly back on the table, lest Iran forget that even if the U.S. will not act militarily any time soon, Israel most certainly will if it must.
The second purpose of Netanyahu’s speech was to put the international community on notice regarding the urgency of the situation, and to send the message that even if many in the West have fallen for Iran’s “campaign of smiles,” Israel has not, and if Israeli concerns are neglected, action will be taken.
Should the international community continue to allow Iran to buy more time for its nuclear program, as it has done for more than a decade, after Netanyahu’s warning, it will not be able to respond with surprise when Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites.
Israel’s leadership has long since concluded that a nuclear-armed Iranian regime — a regime that is doctrinally and theologically committed to Israel’s destruction, and that controls a state-sponsored terrorist network, active worldwide — is an outcome many times more dangerous than any military attack.
Israel’s defense establishment recognizes that stringent U.S.-led economic sanctions have forced Iran to the negotiating table. But senior officials, such as Israel’s Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, have warned that merely arriving for negotiations and offering “sweet talk” is no reason to reward Iran by easing sanctions. On the contrary, easing sanctions now would guarantee that talks will fail.
Similarly, any agreement that allows Iran to continue to enrich uranium under the guise of a civilian energy program will simply enshrine Iran’s position as a nuclear breakout state. Only tangible, verifiable steps that will ensure Iran is pushed back by years from its current progress could be considered an accomplishment.
Against the background of these developments, it is worth bearing in mind that the core of Jerusalem’s defense doctrine holds that Israel cannot depend on any foreign power — even its most trusted ally, the United States — to deal with an existential security threat.
Israel’s clock, which gauges Iranian nuclear progress, ticks faster than that of America’s, due to Israel’s lesser strike capabilities, its smaller size, its closer proximity to Iran, and ultimately, because Israel is the openly and repeatedly declared number one target of Iran’s ambition to destroy it.
If Israel misses its window of opportunity to act, such a lapse would violate a central tenet of its own defense doctrine — that Israel cannot depend on any external power to deal with existential security threats — thereby making that option unthinkable. Once Israeli intelligence agencies and senior military command levels conclude that the clock has struck one minute to midnight, no amount of pressure from allies will succeed in dissuading it from acting in self-preservation.
A military strike would not be a goal in itself, as Iran could go right back to reactivating its program, but it would be a last resort designed to accomplish what years of talks could not: to push Iran back from the nuclear brink.
Israel’s strike capabilities remain a closely guarded secret, but according to international media reports, the Israel Air Force has more than 100 F15i and F16i fighter jets that can fly to Iran and return without the need to refuel, as well as, for other jets, advanced midair refueling capabilities that would allow them to strike multiple Iranian targets. According to the reports, Israel also possesses long-range Jericho ground-to-ground missiles.
Any strike, moreover, would be unimaginable without the Israel Defense Force’s advanced electronic warfare units.
In the event that Iran orders its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah to retaliate with tens of thousands of rockets and missiles on the Israeli home front, Israel could respond with devastating air force strikes using new weapons systems, and a lightning ground invasion of southern Lebanon to extinguish quickly the rocket attacks and leave Hezbollah on the ropes.
No one in Israel seeks war, and few dispute that a diplomatic solution that can really freeze the threat from Tehran is the most desired outcome.
But so far, beyond empty gestures, Iran has given no indication that it is prepared to give up its program, and time is running out.
Related Topics: Iran, Israel | Yaakov Lappin
As Peace Talks Continue, Palestinian Terror Groups Prepare for Jihad
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Be the first of your friends to like this.“The continuation of settlement construction is the main obstacle to the success of the peace process,” the PLO leadership said in a statement that completely ignored the calls for jihad by several Palestinian terror groups.
As the U.S.-sponsored peace talks between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority continue, Palestinian terror groups are preparing for jihad against Israel.
At the negotiations, the Palestinian Authority representatives are talking about the establishment of a Palestinian state along the pre-1967 lines, namely the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem.
But the voices coming out of the Gaza Strip’s various terror groups are talking about preparations to “liberate all Palestine, from the river to the sea.”
Since the resumption of the peace talks about two months ago, these groups, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, have repeatedly announced that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas does not have a mandate from Palestinians to make any concessions to Israel.
“Hamas’s eyes are set on the liberation of Jerusalem and the prisoners,” declared Abu Obaida, spokesman for Hamas’s armed wing, Izaddin al-Kassam. “Our hearts are set on Lod, Ramle, Al-Majdal [Ashkelon] and other all the villages in occupied Palestine.”
Abu Obaida said that his group, which consists of several thousand militiamen, possesses “strategic weapons” that would be used against Israel.
Another terror group, the Unification Brigade, announced this week that its men were also preparing for jihad against Israel. The group is affiliated with the Popular Resistance Committees, an alliance of various terror organizations operating in the Gaza Strip.
Members of Fatah’s armed wing, Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, have also come out against the ongoing peace talks with Israel. Leaflets published by the group in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the past few weeks have affirmed its commitment to the armed struggle against Israel as the only option to “achieving Palestinian aspirations and rights.”
These terror groups are not lacking in weapons and motivation to engage in another round of violence with Israel.
Despite the security restrictions imposed by the Egyptians in Sinai and the demolition of more than 300 tunnels, these terror groups have managed to find other ways to smuggle more weapons into the Gaza Strip.
Palestinians in the Gaza Strip say that some of these groups are armed with anti-aircraft missiles and long-range missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv and even further north.
The preparations for war coincide with public opinion polls that show that a majority of Palestinians anticipate a third intifada if the peace talks fail.
One poll showed that 58% of Palestinians predict the outbreak of a new intifada if the talks collapse.
Another survey indicated that more than 70% of Palestinians believe that the armed struggle against Israel remains the only option to “liberating all Palestine.”
The Palestinian Authority, meanwhile, has thus far refrained from condemning the calls for war. Instead, the PLO leadership, which held a meeting in Ramallah earlier last week, continued to hold Israel fully responsible for “placing obstacles on the way to achieving progress in the peace talks.”
“The continuation of settlement construction is the main obstacle to the success of the peace process,” the PLO leadership said in a statement that completely ignored the calls for jihad by several Palestinian terror groups.
The allegation came as Palestinian Authority officials continued to declare that the peace talks have reached a “dead-end” and that Israel was not sincere about reaching peace with the Palestinians.
Nabil Sha’ath, a senior Fatah official and former negotiator, announced that Israel’s demand to retain control over some parts of the West bank in a final settlement with the Palestinians “reveal the true intentions of Israel, which does not want to reach a solution.”
It is such statements that are providing the terror groups with an excuse to step up their calls for jihad against Israel.
So while the Palestinian Authority is continuing to talk peace with Israel, it is at the same time telling Palestinians that they should not expect anything to come out of the negotiations.
If the Palestinian Authority itself is declaring day and night that the talks with Israel are a waste of time, why shouldn’t the terror groups prepare for war? And it is no surprise that a majority of Palestinians are convinced that a third intifada is on its way.
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