RUTHFULLY YOURS

The reported political obstacles to the construction of a natural gas pipeline between Israel and Turkey are but another confirmation that relations between the two countries are strained. This last Israel-Turkey row also provides an opportunity to ponder the wisdom of building an Israeli pipeline to Turkey, in the first place.

There are good reasons why Israel and Turkey are considering the construction of such a pipeline. Turkey is a natural gas importer, while Israel is about to become a natural gas exporter. Not only is Turkey trying to diversify its gas imports in order to reduce its dependency on Russia’s expansive natural gas, it also wants to solidify its key role as a transit country for energy flows: Turkey is strategically located at the crossroads of energy exporters (the Middle East and the Caucasus) and energy importers (European countries). As the EU will likely become an importer of Israel’s natural gas, Turkey could provide a transit route for an Israeli gas pipeline to Europe.

However, relying on Turkey as a transit country for Israel’s exports to Europe would constitute a long-term strategic mistake.

The infrastructure for the delivery of natural gas (either via pipelines or liquefaction) is complex and expensive, which is why exporting and importing countries are generally locked in long-term agreements. Hence the need to carefully understand the potential risks of the Turkish option.

Building an Israeli pipeline via Turkey would likely undermine the emerging energy partnership between Israel and Cyprus. Noble Energy, the company that discovered the Tamar field off Israel’s coast, also discovered a field of comparable size (Aphrodite) off Cyprus. As a result, Israel and Cyprus control together about 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas – which represents two years’ worth of the EU’s natural gas consumption.

This is why an energy partnership between Israel and Cyprus is taking shape. Turkey, however, is opposed to such a partnership. Because of the Turkish occupation in northern Cyprus and because the tensions between Cyprus and Turkey, Israel cannot have it both ways and will eventually have to make a choice.

In January 2013, the Director of Israel’s Ministry of Energy, Shaul Tzemah, suggested the possibility of an energy partnership between Israel and Turkey. Right after that, Turkey’s Deputy Energy Minister Murat Mercan retorted that Israel would first have to apologize for the Mavi Marmara incident, compensate the families of the victims, and end the military blockade of Gaza. Even if Israel were to meet these demands, Mercan added, it would have to end its energy cooperation with “Greek Cyprus.”

The long-term trends clearly suggest that Israeli-Turkish ties will continue to deteriorate. The tension started way before the Mavi Marmara incident and is deeply rooted in President Erdogan’s Islamist ideology and policy.

Edorgan’s political mentor is Necmettin Erbakan, a former Turkish prime minister whose foreign policy was based on trans-Islamic solidarity and uncompromising opposition to Israel. As soon as he became premier in 2003, Ergodan’s foreign policy followed the path of his mentor.

In March 2004, Erdogan called Israel a “terrorist state” following the assassination of Ahmed Yassin. In February 2006, he received Hamas leader Khaled Mashal in Ankara. In January 2009, Erdogan publicly humiliated Shimon Peres at the Davos conference. In October 2009, Turkish state television started airing a series showing Israeli soldiers murdering Palestinian children. In November 2009, Erdogan declared that he would rather meet Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (who perpetuated a genocide in Darfur and in South Sudan) than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In March 2010 Erdogan claimed that the Temple Mount, Hebron and Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem were never Jewish sites. All of this happened before the Mavi Marmara incident.

In February 2013, Erdogan called Zionism a “crime against humanity” and in August 2013 he claimed that Israel was responsible for the military coup in Egypt. Obviously, Erdogan’s hostility to Israel is irrational. It was not caused by the Mavi Marmara incident, it was not fixed by Israel’s apology, and it will not be mended by international mediation between the two countries.

As long as Erdogan and his Islamist party are in power in Turkey, relations with Israel will continue to deteriorate. Therefore, relying on Turkey for Israel’s gas exports to Europe would be a mistake. Israel should pursue its partnership with Cyprus, instead, and build any future gas pipeline to Europe via Greece.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon heads the Political Science and Communication Department at the Jerusalem Orthodox College and teaches International Relations at Tel-Aviv University and at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center. He is a Senior Fellow at the Kohelet Policy Forum.