WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama’s Approval Rating Hits New Low :Patrick O’Connor
Marks Could Be Hurdle for Democrats in November Amid Broad Dissatisfaction
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304250204579433533118580224?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories&mg=reno64-wsj
President Barack Obama is struggling to overcome widespread pessimism about the economy and deep frustration with Washington, notching the lowest job-approval ratings of his presidency in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
The results suggest Mr. Obama could weigh on fellow Democrats in midterm elections this fall, particularly in the conservative states that will play a large role in deciding whether his party retains its Senate majority.
Mr. Obama’s job approval ticked down to 41% in March from 43% in January, marking a new low. Some 54% disapproved of the job he is doing, matching a previous high from December, when the botched rollout of his signature health law played prominently in the news. The latest survey also showed the lowest-ever approval in Journal/NBC polling for Mr. Obama’s handling of foreign policy.
The findings come amid dissatisfaction with all elected leaders in Washington and low regard for the Republican Party. Roughly a quarter of those polled view the GOP positively, with 45% harboring negative views, weaker numbers than for the Democratic Party.
While fortunes could change in the months before November, Mr. Obama’s power to help his party’s candidates appear limited, said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who directs the Journal/NBC poll with Democrat Fred Yang.
“The president is being taken off the field as a Democratic positive,” Mr. McInturff said. “These numbers would suggest that, beyond his behind-the-scenes fundraising, it’s hard to imagine the president on the road and hard to imagine where he would campaign.”
For Democrats, agreed Mr. Yang, “the wind is in our faces.”
Americans surveyed in the poll said they were less inclined to support a candidate if the person had been endorsed by Mr. Obama or was a “solid supporter” of his administration. Approval of Mr. Obama is particularly weak in the South and Midwest, regions where Democrats could have a tough time defending Senate seats.
Dissatisfaction with all incumbents remains high. Only 34% in the poll of 1,000 adults, conducted March 5-9, said their member of Congress deserved another term, compared with 55% who said they would rather give someone else a chance. Fifty-four percent said they would vote to replace every member of Congress, including their own representative, if ballots included that option.
Unease over the economy continues to drive these concerns. Sixty-five percent of those polled said the country is on the wrong track, compared with the 26% who said it was on the right one, a wider spread than in the midterm-election years of 2006 and 2010. Roughly one-quarter of the respondents think the economy will improve over the next year, while 57% believe the U.S. is still in a recession, despite years of modest economic growth and robust stock-market gains.
Mr. Obama’s weakening position is due in part to slippage within his own party. The poll tallied his highest-ever disapproval rating from fellow Democrats, at 20%, a cause for concern for the party heading into midterm elections that often are defined by which side turns out its base. In particular, Mr. Obama’s support is softening among blacks, Hispanics and women.
Despite those signs of erosion for the president, Mr. Obama still doesn’t engender the same levels of disapproval that his predecessor, George W. Bush, garnered at this point in his presidency. And Mr. Obama’s support among women, particularly white women, as of now is strong enough to create a bulwark against GOP gains in the midterms.
Despite the headwinds, Democrats have a potentially winning issue in pushing to increase the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour from $7.25. That was one of the most popular suggested attributes of a candidate tested in the poll, with 58% saying they were more likely to support someone who backs the increase and 29% saying they would oppose that person.
Respondents in the poll also said they were likely to favor candidates who say they are committed to cutting federal spending, a potential aid to Republicans. But with equal force, respondents said they would be less likely to support a candidate who backs reductions in Social Security and Medicare to address the budget deficit, a position most often identified with Republicans.
The 2010 health law remains more unpopular than popular, but the lines blur when it comes to which changes Americans prefer. Those polled were as likely to support a Republican candidate who wants to repeal the law entirely as a Democrat who wants to fix it.
One area of agreement among respondents of either party was on whether the U.S. should reassert itself on the world stage. Adults surveyed were less likely to support a candidate who wants to see the U.S. assume an expanded role in policing foreign conflicts and more likely to support one who doesn’t. Republicans, Democrats and independents showed more agreement on those questions than many others.
Republicans and Democrats also tended to agree that the U.S. should only involve itself in the brewing conflict between Russia and Ukraine if other nations take part, or that it should let Europeans handle the matter on their own. A mere 5% said the U.S. should take action by itself.
“The time and the place for the United States to become the world’s policeman has come and gone,” said poll respondent David Anderson, a 74-year-old independent from Monroe, Wash. “Let the world fight amongst themselves.”
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews with 1,000 adults, including a sample of 300 who use only a cellphone. It was conducted March 5 to 9 by the polling organizations of Bill McInturff at Public Opinion Strategies and Fred Yang at Hart Research Associates.
Individuals were selected proportionate to the nation’s population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all landline phone numbers, listed and unlisted, an equal chance to be included.
Adults age 18 or over were selected by a procedure to provide a balance of respondents by sex. The cellphone sample was drawn from a list of cellphone users nationally, and respondents were screened to ensure that their cellphone is their only phone.
The data’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger.
—Rebecca Ballhaus contributed to this article.
Write to Patrick O’Connor at Patrick.O’connor@wsj.com
Comments are closed.
