RICHARD BAEHR:ISRAEL’S DOUBLE WORLD
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=9049
Over 100 rockets have been fired at Israel in the last 24 hours, some of them aimed at Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and even Haifa in the north (to believe Hamas spokesmen). But not to worry, since at this week’s Haaretz Conference on Peacein Tel Aviv (kudos to the newspaper for its great timing), the biggest concern has not been that most of populated Israel had become a free-fire zone for Hamas. The big story at the event is that Economy Minister Naftali Bennett was invited and had the gall to show up, which led to angry cries of “murderer” and “fascist” from audience members, and ended with the minister being punched in the back by one of the peace-loving Israelis in attendance.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas made his remarks to the conference in a prerecorded interview. Had he appeared in person, it is unlikely that any of the attendees would have questioned him about the peace-loving bona fides of his new coalition partner, Hamas. This crowd knows why there are kidnappings and rocket launches. These are, of course, a result of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the rapid and extensive growth of settlements. Gaza, of course, has not had an IDF presence or settlers for almost a decade, but strangely, tens of thousands of rockets have still been fired at Israel since the withdrawal from Gaza. One might almost think that there had to be another reason for Hamas’ violent behavior.
Fortunately, for conference attendees, the likes of thoughtful and open-minded analysts such as Peter Beinart and J Street’s Jeremy Ben-Ami will be able to direct the conference back to Israel’s original and now continuing sin. For peace is always at hand, if only Israel would reach out its hand in peace to its always willing Palestinian partner, who wants nothing more than to live “side by side in peace” in two states, Palestine and Israel.
U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have sung this kumbayah tune, and no event or reality on the ground will change the music. There may even be Hamas “technocrats,” and members of the political wing of this eliminationist group who would welcome a chance to play at being peaceful, and sing and dance with their fellow attendees and think sweet thoughts of Pete Seeger. Incredibly, there are Israelis, though they are a diminishing breed, who cling to this nonsense and may even subscribe to and read Haaretz religiously.
In the meantime, back on Planet Israel, a substantial portion of the population is now in bomb-shelter territory. Israel has stepped up its airstrikes in Gaza, but so far it has only led to an increase in the number of rockets fired, and an expansion of the geographic area susceptible to such fire. The calls from the international community for restraint are already omnipresent, and while ostensibly directed at both Israel and Hamas, are of course really directed only at Israel, since no outside party has any real leverage on Hamas at this point. The need for restraint goes hand in hand with the condemnation and disappointment with the “cycle of violence” underway, something that presumably just ignited on its own (why did those three boys allow themselves to get kidnapped and killed?).
The U.S. State Department and even some European countries have paid lip service to Israel’s right to defend itself against cross-border attacks, all of which are aimed at killing Israelis. European Union Ambassador to Israel Lars Faaborg-Andersen, a speaker at the Conference on Peace, was still bloviating on the need for a two-state solution, even as the rockets were raining down the last few days.
Faaborg-Andersen’s nation, Denmark, has not faced any rocket fire or aggression since 1940. The country likely would not know what to do, nor have any means to respond, if exposed to the environment that has become the norm in Sderot and other areas in Israel’s south over the last decade. Lucky for Faaborg-Andersen and his nation, they have Germany, and Norway and Sweden as neighbors, and they should be fine for a while, or at least until the multicultural imperative that dominates elite opinion in his and surrounding countries leads to their welcoming in a few too many immigrants who turn out not to be all that interested in assimilation, but more interested in violence against the likes of the Scandinavian nonbelievers.
The problem for Israel is that it has gone down this path before. More rockets lead to more IDF airstrikes, which lead to more rockets, and eventually to a ground campaign. Given the population density in Gaza, and Hamas’ cynical use of civilian human shields, and thousands of homes for storing and firing rockets, the casualty count will climb with more intense airstrikes, and then with a ground campaign if it follows.
As with the war against Hezbollah in 2006, and the later battle in Gaza, at some point, the international pressure on Israel, particularly from the United States, will grow too strong to ignore. Israel will withdraw or stop going after Hamas, ostensibly having gotten Hamas and other Gaza fighters to at least tamp down the rocket fire for some period, so it appears Israel has accomplished its task.
But it is not as clear that Hamas has the same degree of control over all the groups in Gaza that it did in 2009 after Operation Cast Lead, and any tactical retreat diminishes the group’s appeal as the leader of the revolutionary resistance. With many more rockets, including longer-range rockets in its arsenal, Hamas may have more confidence in its ability to weather any Israeli storm. Gaza has no real economy and is an international welfare basket case, much like the Palestinian Authority. If its economy is damaged by the war, half of near nothing is still near nothing. Israel, on the other hand, will experience real economic dislocations from an extended conflict with its population centers exposed to rocket fire.
Some analysts are calling for Israel to finish the job and eliminate Hamas, a task that seems easier to write about than accomplish. While a significant number of Israelis seem happy to be out of Gaza, Gaza has never been out of Israel since the Israeli withdrawal. That unfortunate situation will continue, even if a new cease-fire of sorts is accomplished. Many of Israel’s critics in neighboring Arab countries have no use for Hamas (or for that matter Hezbollah) and while publicly condemning Israel during its wars with both parties, hoped that Israel would go further and deal a more telling blow to these terror groups. The same sentiment exists over any Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear program, which Western negotiators from the P5+1 seem desperate to let live, while racing to shower the mullahs with tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief as a gift (and inducement) to get Iran to sign a treaty, really a piece of paper, which they will largely ignore.
Given the increased firepower of Israel’s non-state enemies on the borders, there is a sense that this latest flare-up may spin out of the control of the parties as the escalation continues. Calibrating Israel’s responses to the deadly provocations are the kind of hard choices the country’s leaders routinely face. These are of a different type entirely from the so-called hard choices of an American secretary of state, deciding which county to visit for the latest photo op with some Third World leader, always accompanied by smiling local women and children.
Israel is playing for keeps, as are its enemies. It is no wonder, then, that some Israelis and some of their American Jewish compatriots can dream of peace and believe it is just around the corner, and hold conferences to beat this drum, while the violence flares all around them. It is not the first time delusions have trumped reality. For it is easier than admitting you are a fool, and then making real hard choices from the only serious options that are really out there.
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