How Little We Know About North Korea : John Bolton
http://online.wsj.com/articles/how-little-we-know-about-north-korea-1414083153
The fact that we still can’t explain Kim Jong Un’s recent absence should be unsettling.
Although North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has allegedly reappeared after disappearing from public view for six weeks, we still can’t explain his absence. Was he gravely ill, facing a possible coup or enmeshed in something far more exotic? One theory is as good as the next for assessing what actually happens inside North Korea. But the real issue for the U.S., South Korea and Japan is what Kim’s absence (or a future one) portends for Pyongyang’s steadily progressing nuclear-weapons program.
Right now the U.S. does not seem to be paying attention. North Korea has conducted two of its three nuclear tests during the Barack Obama presidency. Rumors of a fourth circulate constantly. Yet the White House has no apparent strategy, diplomatic or otherwise, to restrain Pyongyang’s continuing enrichment and weaponization activities. Nor is there a plan for dealing with its menacing ballistic-missile program, intended to provide delivery vehicles to reach targets world-wide, most notably in the U.S.
To be fair, President Obama correctly dropped the George W. Bush State Department’s approach of constant attention to North Korea, believing it signaled erroneously that we valued a deal no matter what its terms. But six years of inattention isn’t an effective alternative. If Mr. Obama didn’t want to pursue diplomacy, he should have devised another way to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear efforts. He did neither. Inaction inevitably meant that both the North’s nuclear arsenal and its ballistic-missile capabilities continued to grow.
The contrast between Mr. Obama’s obsession with negotiating with Iran and his indifference toward North Korea could hardly be greater. Despite his famous “pivot” from the Middle East to Asia, Iran has constantly eclipsed North Korea in the president’s priorities. Explanations for the disparity are hard to come by.
This is especially troubling because Tehran and Pyongyang have worked together for more than 15 years on long-range ballistic missiles. Their nuclear cooperation is nearly certain. Focusing on one threat while ignoring the other makes no sense, especially since Mr. Obama’s greater attention to Iran has produced no positive results. Both rogue states continue advancing toward possessing deliverable nuclear weapons.
The danger of ignoring North Korea’s nuclear effort is starkly underlined by growing uncertainty about the stability of its regime. The sustained failure of the U.S. to collect adequate intelligence on Pyongyang—as the recent speculation about Kim Jong Un demonstrated—means its odds of peering into the North’s “Twilight Zone” are slim to none. Even Seoul, with far better opportunities and capabilities to glean evidence, has little confidence that it knows what is happening. And what the U.S. doesn’t know about North Korea’s leadership it also doesn’t know about the country’s nuclear capabilities.
A “mere” health crisis for Kim Jong Un, now or later, could mean he is still in charge but unwilling to appear in public until his condition improved. Or his health might impair his ability to exert political control and a power struggle could be imminent or under way. Or Kim could be preparing some kind of military demonstration, and is scheming to capture international attention. Our inability to do more than speculate means that if something significant is happening behind the veil, our capacity to respond is impaired.
Washington and Seoul have long had contingency military plans, continuously under review, to strike across the Demilitarized Zone should the regime in Pyongyang appear to be collapsing. This is simple prudence on their part. The global risks are nearly incalculable if the North’s weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical and biological) escape U.S. efforts and are scattered. The stakes are enormous, especially whenever it appears that North Korea’s prison state might be entering its death throes.
So however bemusing North Korea’s bizarre conduct, the U.S. must not be distracted by its theater. Instead of ignoring Pyongyang’s nuclear threat, as Mr. Obama has consistently done, the focus must shift to stopping it from cooperating with Iran and other would-be nuclear powers. This requires both diplomacy and more active measures like the Bush Administration’s Proliferation Security Initiative.
The U.S. must remember that its ultimate objective is reunifying the Korean Peninsula as peacefully and orderly as possible. That has been its declared policy since 1945. Yet it isn’t Kim as an individual who threatens this objective most, but North Korea’s very existence. The U.S. should stop ignoring that fact and redouble its efforts now in order to reach its goal.
Mr. Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
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