The election trend must be moving toward the GOP because the media are predicting a disastrous result for Republicans on Nov. 4—if they win. The latest media trope is that Republicans are in such dreadful political shape that even victory would really mean catastrophic defeat.
The New York Times started this off a few weeks back with a piece arguing that a Congressional GOP sweep would be wonderful news for Hillary Clinton . She could then run against Congress in 2016. The success-is-failure theme has gained steam and in the latest iteration, by the liberal journalist Ron Brownstein of the Atlantic, the looming midterm results are “an obvious problem for Democrats—and perhaps an even larger one for Republicans.”
The arguments are that lower voter turnout in the midterms will cause Republicans to embrace the illusion of a mandate and ignore that they are doomed demographically as minorities become a larger share of the electorate. They will overreach on policy, dance to their no-compromise wing, and set up their 2016 nominee for inevitable defeat.
So Democrats will win if they keep their Senate majority but they also win if they lose it. You almost have to admire the ideological brass at work here, and it is always possible that this pre-defeat spin will turn out to be right.