A Haaretz poll, conducted on Tuesday by the Dialog Institute and supervised by Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University, revealed seemingly paradoxical results.
According to the poll, which was taken among a representative sample of 505 Israelis, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is very unpopular, but remains the best candidate for the job.
Indeed, while most of the public does not want him to win a third consecutive term (which would constitute a fourth term overall), his rivals fare worse.
It must be kept in mind that the Knesset elections are scheduled for March, nearly three months away. A lot can happen in that time, especially in Israel, where events are incredibly dynamic on a daily basis.
Proof of this is how distant the war in Gaza now seems, though it ended very recently. In July and August, Hamas missiles were flying all over the country, sending the entire populace into bomb shelters and a smaller number into Gaza to fight the terrorists and destroy their infrastructure. By October, the cheap cost of chocolate pudding in Berlin compared with that in Tel Aviv was front-page news.
In addition, because of the nature of survey questions, which leave no room for nuance or qualifications, they are not reliable. What they provide, however, is a general, anecdotal sense of the way the wind is blowing at any given moment. Like man-in-the-street interviews, they serve as a gauge of temporary gut sentiment.
Due to the way the political system works in Israel, one main question on the mind of average voters is whether to cast their ballot for the largest party that comes closest to their worldview, or to go with a smaller party with a more specific focus. Opting for the latter often means throwing one’s vote into the garbage, since narrow-interest tickets — such as the marijuana party — usually don’t pass the electoral threshold to make it into the Knesset.
This used to be a far more cut-and-dry choice between Left and Right. The major parties would garner most of the votes, and the victor among the two would form the coalition.
But since both previous major blocs, Likud and Labor, have split over the years, the Knesset map has changed. Today, there are three or four parties hovering around the same number of seats, or at least garnering a sufficient number to make them a force for the party forming the coalition to be reckoned with.