The U.S. Congress is presently reviewing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)*, a deal concluded on July 14, 2015 by Iran and the major world powers. It is likely that Congress will reject the Deal in September; but it may not be able to override the inevitable presidential veto later. Here we speculate also on what is likely to happen to oil prices, on reactions of Iran, Arab oil producers, and on Israeli pre-emption against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The September Congressional Vote
Congress has sixty days to consider the Deal, based on what the White House reveals to them about the details. The outcome of the vote is not certain; it depends on the vote of a few Democratic Senators who are divided on the issue and may wish to examine also any secret side agreements. However, it’s likely that a coalition will form between senators who are skeptical about the Deal and senators who have other reasons to vote against the Administration. Specifically, many senators from states between the Rockies and the Appalachians are likely to vote against the so-called Clean Power Plan (CPP) – really part of the White House’ “War on Coal” — which is being forced upon the nation by the EPA. There is also likely to be a protest vote from Senators who oppose the United Nations and some of its policies; there is much resentment that Obama submitted the Deal first to the UN Security Council (UNSC) for its approval in an obvious ploy to circumvent Congress; UNSC Resolution 2231 now enshrines the JCPOA nuclear agreement.
