A Bombing in Ankara Turkey is increasingly being pulled into the Syrian vortex.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-bombing-in-ankara-1444602180
A pair of suicide bombings ripped through a peace rally in Ankara on Saturday morning, killing at least 95 marchers and injuring hundreds. It was the deadliest terror attack in Turkey’s modern history and further evidence that a country that is supposed to be an anchor of Middle East stability is increasingly vulnerable to regional furies and its own domestic discontents.
No group had taken credit for the bombings by our deadline Sunday evening. Turkish security forces believe the attack was carried out either by Islamic State, the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) or one of the country’s resurgent left-wing terror outfits.
Yet members of the mainstream ethnic-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) were attending the targeted rally, which called for easing hostilities between the Turkish state and Kurdish militants. That makes the PKK an unlikely culprit. The Ankara massacre followed two other recent bombings against HDP and left-wing activists.
That leaves Islamic State. Once allowed to cross Turkey’s porous border to fight in Syria, Islamic State forces have now turned against Ankara, vowing to punish the Turks for joining the “crusaders” against their self-declared caliphate. But Islamic State usually takes credit for its deadly handiwork, while Turkish security forces have a record of manipulating evidence against their preferred culprits, so we’ll reserve judgment on responsibility.
What is clear is that the bombings hit at a fraught moment in Turkish politics. Turks will soon hold the second national election in less than a year. Voters in June stripped the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years, mainly out of fear of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authoritarian ambitions. The HDP entered Parliament for the first time in those elections by appealing beyond its Kurdish base.
The AKP responded by refusing to negotiate in good faith with opposition parties seeking a coalition, allowing the deadline for forming a government to pass. That gave Mr. Erdogan a chance to get an election do-over, even as he launched an ugly campaign against the HDP while abandoning peace talks with the PKK.
If past is precedent, the Ankara bombing will reinforce Mr. Erdogan’s autocratic tendencies. Turkish social-media users reported they couldn’t access Twitter and Facebook in the aftermath of the attack, and government censors banned broadcasters from airing footage of the blast. The Turkish military continues to hammer PKK positions, despite a cease-fire declaration by the Kurdish group.
As the terror threat intensifies, Turkey could use a leader who can put partisan instincts aside and unite the country’s ethnic and political factions. Mr. Erdogan seems intent on playing up ethnic divisions to keep the AKP in power. Turkey could also use a U.S. leader who understands the threat that chaos in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East poses to American allies and interests. Having already sucked up Iraq, the Syrian vortex is increasingly drawing Turkey into its spin. Expect more trouble ahead.
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