In Foreign Policy, a Grim State of the Union By Aaron David Miller
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/01/11/in-foreign-policy-a-grim-state-of-the-union/
Presidential rhetoric is much less effective in a final year, after a leader’s statements and approach have become rooted in reality. And in his final State of the Union address, Barack Obama will have a tough time persuading a skeptical nation that the world he inherited eight years ago is somehow more manageable and secure as a result of his efforts.
In his speech Tuesday, Mr. Obama is likely to claim success on a number of issues. He has reached out to Cuba, concluded an agreement to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and negotiated a trade accord with Pacific nations as well as a historic framework on climate change. But all of these accomplishments are works in progress; the first two depend on changes in the behavior of authoritarian regimes; the latter on (uncertain) congressional approval and the compliance of numerous international actors. The success or failure of these endeavors won’t be determined until long after Mr. Obama leaves the White House, and a Republican successor might well try to undermine, delay, or alter some or all of them.
When it comes to terror attacks at home, Mr. Obama will seek to reassure but it’s going to be a heavy lift. Two-thirds of the public disapproves of his approach to Islamic State. Mr. Obama can point to recent successes by the Iraqi army against ISIS in Ramadi, but that victory is less a turning point than a successful turn in a long and winding road. The image of a president who underestimated the rise of ISIS and has been reluctant to use more military muscle is increasingly criticized by the many Republicans running for president. Mr. Obama’s former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, has sought to distance herself from the president on the issue of a “no-fly zone” for Syria. Fair or not, more San Bernardino-style attacks, a Paris-like assault, or the downing of a U.S. commercial airliner could undermine Mr. Obama’s foreign-policy legacy.
In his final year Mr. Obama is more at the mercy of events than he is in control of them. North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests on Mr. Obama’s watch; Vladimir Putin is acting in Syria to buck up the Assad regime; Saudi Arabia–a longtime U.S. partner–is increasingly going its own way. Meanwhile, Iran tests ballistic missiles, imprisons U.S. citizens, and continues to support Bashar al-Assad–all of which reinforce the image of a president who is more acted upon than actor. It seems increasingly clear that powers large and small can say no to Mr. Obama without cost or consequence. This makes the state of the union, at least as it pertains to foreign policy in 2016, pretty grim.
Aaron David Miller is a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars and most recently the author of “The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t Have (and Doesn’t Want) Another Great President.” He is on Twitter: @AaronDMiller2.
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