Syria’s Phony Peace Talks- Assad bombs with impunity while Islamic State gains ground.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/syrias-phony-peace-talks-1454283726
Regarding the Syrian peace talks that began over the weekend in Geneva, allow us to raise two questions: What peace—and what talks?
The regime of Bashar Assad is intensifying its longstanding “starve or kneel” policy against besieged enclaves containing an estimated half a million people. The regime has also scored recent battlefield victories against moderate opposition forces, aided by a combination of Russian air power, Hezbollah ground fighters and Iran’s elite Quds Force.
Meantime, the Institute for the Study of War reports that Islamic State (ISIS) has responded to its recent losses in Iraq by launching a fresh offensive in eastern Syria to consolidate control of the Euphrates River valley, while the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front is gaining strength in Aleppo, once Syria’s commercial capital. Neither ISIS nor Nusra are at the talks, and they will continue to fight regardless of what comes out of Geneva.
Also not represented are Kurdish forces, which have been the most effective ground fighters against ISIS but were excluded due to Turkish sensitivities.
Instead, the opposition is represented by an umbrella group backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia called the High Negotiations Committee, which is demanding that the regime lift its starvation sieges and end air strikes as a precondition to “proximity negotiations”—so named because the two sides won’t agree to sit in the same room. But the opposition’s diplomatic leverage has fallen with its battlefield fortunes, so any deal it might strike in Geneva would have little effect inside Syria.
None of this augurs well for the talks called Geneva III after the collapse of Geneva I and II. Why hold them at all? For President Obama, the effort fulfills his pledge after the San Bernardino terrorist attack to renew U.S. diplomatic efforts over Syria, regardless of the prospects for success. It also gives Hillary Clinton an opening to say on the campaign trail that Mr. Obama is “finally” on the right course in Syria, after her previous disagreements with Mr. Obama while Secretary of State.
The Assad regime welcomes talks because they offer international legitimacy as well as new opportunities to extract political concessions from its opponents. Russia sees the talks as a vehicle for its own diplomatic rehabilitation amid Western sanctions, even as it defends its clients in Damascus and extends its influence in the Middle East.
Less clear is how this helps the Syrian people. “As usual, the regime imposes the siege on the city before each conference or an important event,” a councilman in one starved and encircled town recently told the Journal. Creating catastrophes it can then “solve” in exchange for Western concessions is an Assad family specialty. It has already parleyed this into U.S. acquiescence in Mr. Assad’s participation in a “transitional” future government with no fixed timetable for his departure.
The tragedy for Syria is that, even as talks enhance Mr. Assad’s legitimacy and strengthen his hand, they will further discredit the moderate opposition, which is being pressured to participate in a transitional government with the same regime most Syrians are desperate to overthrow. The dragooning may further embitter moderates toward the U.S., while strengthening claims by Islamic State and the Nusra Front that they are the only serious Sunni opposition to the Shiite regime.
That point is worth underscoring as Republicans like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul argue that intervening against Mr. Assad would strengthen the jihadists. In reality, the regime and Islamic State are symbiotic enemies, each drawing political strength from the other’s brutality even as they both target more moderate forces. There’s a reason Russian warplanes have rarely targeted Islamic State and the Assad regime buys Islamic State oil.
Next month marks the fifth anniversary of the Syrian war. Nobody can claim there’s an easy solution to what has become the greatest geopolitical disaster of the decade. But a plausible solution isn’t possible as long as Islamic State controls much of the country and the Assad regime feels free with Russian help to force Syrians into exile with barrel bombs and hunger sieges. The only peace likely to come out of Geneva is if the U.S. bludgeons the moderate Sunni opposition into surrender.
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