North Korea, Nuclear Safety, and Lessons From the Iran Deal By Robert S. Litwak
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/04/01/north-korea-nuclear-safety-and-lessons-from-the-iran-deal/
Robert S. Litwak is a vice president of the Wilson Center and the author of “Iran’s Nuclear Chess: After the Deal.” He was director for nonproliferation on the National Security Council staff in the Clinton administration.
North Korea’s missile test Friday highlighted the threat discussed by President Barack Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and others gathered at the Nuclear Security Summit.
Since 2010 these meetings have spearheaded progress in securing some 2,000 tons of weapons-grade nuclear material around the world, with the goal of denying terrorist groups such as Islamic State the essential component to build a weapon. Still, much work remains to secure nuclear material in the former Soviet republics, South Africa, and elsewhere. And theft or purchase of a weapon are the more immediately plausible routes of terrorist acquisition.
Concern about these two routes to nuclearization focuses on Pakistan and North Korea. Pakistan has the world’s fastest-growing nuclear arsenal, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. It is developing small, low-yield tactical nuclear weapons potentially for use against India. Their size and portability makes these weapons vulnerable to theft, whether by rogue commanders or other forces. President Obama said in 2009 that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal was secure but administration officials no longer offers such assurances, the New York Times reported this week.
In North Korea, there is more to worry about than the regime’s threats to use weapons. The government in Pyongyang is desperate for funds to maintain the lifestyle of Kim Jong Un and his cronies. The regime needs to raise about $1 billion a year, estimates David Asher of the Center for a New American Security. For the right price, the North Koreans might sell anything to anyone. And Pyongyang’s arsenal of a dozen weapons is poised to surge to as many as 100 weapons by 2020. CONTINUE AT SITE
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