The US presidential election this year will not be about whoever wins. It will be about the preventable rise of Donald Trump, and the crisis of the American political institutions his candidacy represents.
In the early 1990s, when the old political order of Italy collapsed trailing the fall of the Soviet Empire, media tycoon–cum-showman Silvio Berlusconi emerged. For the next two decades he was the symptom of or cure for Italian tribulations, depending on your side of the parliamentary aisle. The country was bitterly divided about him and his leadership, something that further complicated all national issues.
Many of the problems of Italy and the European Union, of which Italy is an economic linchpin, rest with Berlusconi and those 20 years of political rifts. The country is yet to emerge from those divisions.
A similar event of very different nature happened in Thailand, likewise a political linchpin of Southeast Asia. It occurred after the 1997 financial crisis that swept the region like a typhoon. Thaksin Shinawatra took power and put forward widespread reforms that the king ultimately felt were undermining his position and power. He and the army stopped Thaksin and set Thailand on a reverse course in history. Now Myanmar, for decades the primary specimen of a rogue military regime, is moving boldly to democracy while neighboring Thailand, for decades a shining example of freedom in the region, is moving toward democracy—setting electoral rules with the sole purpose of preventing Thaksin’s return to power. Unlike Europe, South East Asia is not bound but a united currency, so the area can more easily leave Thailand behind.
The solutions the two men offered were different but both were wild cards emerging in a moment of huge social and political disruption.
Donald Trump may be in many ways the present American version of Berlusconi or, perhaps, of Thaksin. He loves to flaunt his wealth, appeals to populist rhetoric, is keen on histrionics, and receives a similarly divisive response from the public.
Months ago, when many were basically laughing about Trump, Angelo Codevillawarned that Trump was the sign of a deep crisis in American politics.
Now it is clear that Trump might be the Republican candidate in the upcoming presidential election or, at least, he will play an important part in the choice of the Republican candidate. It is already a huge victory for Trump, and concrete evidence of the crisis Codevilla warned about.