RUTHFULLY YOURS

Only a direct and unequivocal US commitment can truly reassure Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia that their recent grim histories of invasion, occupation and oppression will not be repeated. Obama has proven himself unequal to the task. Will the next president be any better?
Next month, my wife and leave on a trip to Europe. First, we will visit Lithuania, my wife’s home country, for two weeks to catch up with her family and old friends. This is my second visit to Lithuania, and I hope to gain further insights to the hopes and fears of the local people, ranging from 90-year-olds, who lived under both Nazi and Soviet occupation, to young adults, born after independence.

For Lithuania, along with Latvia and Estonia, geopolitical vulnerability is a permanent fact of life. Historical experience has taught harsh lessons. The enforced incorporation of the Baltic states into the Soviet Union back in 1940, notwithstanding their declared neutrality, has impelled them to choose a side.

As soon as accession to NATO was offered, they jumped at the chance to shore up their security. After all, Article 5 of this mutual defence pact reads:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

But does anybody seriously believe that either Germany or France, or for that matter, any other European country would have either the capacity or willingness to come to the aid of the Baltic States, if a resurgent Russia decided to put the treaty to the test? Consider the historical record. The Baltic states have long been expendable pawns. Remember Germany’s seizure of Klaipeda (Memel) from neutral Lithuania in March, 1939, and the secret clauses of the Ribbentrop/Molotov Pact of August, 1939, which doomed the Baltic States to Soviet occupation.

Lest we imagine that the denial of freedom and independence for the Baltic states was merely a totalitarian exercise, we read in, The President, The Pope and The Prime Minister, by Quadrant Editor John O’Sullivan, that independence for the Baltic States was very nearly thwarted, not merely by the still existent Soviet Union but also by Jacques Delors, chairman of the European Commission, Francois Mitterand of France, Helmut Kohl of Germany and the Bush Administration. Only Margaret Thatcher’s heroic intervention at the Rome summit of the European Community in October, 1990, saved the day for Baltic freedom. Remember, this was after the fall of the Berlin wall. As O’Sullivan records on pages 322-323 :

The United States was already applying pressure on the Baltic states against independence. Secretary of State James Baker had told the Lithuanians in May 1990 that they should “freeze” their declaration of independence – and the United States continued to exert such public and private pressure throughout that summer. At Rome, European Commission chairman Jacques Delors further proposed that the EC issue a declaration in favour of preserving the existing external borders of the USSR. That would have meant formal European approval for imprisoning the Baltics indefinitely, and would have damaged their morale, which was already depressed by the lack of Western support.

To the casual observer, the drama playing out on the streets of France looks to be following a well-rehearsed script. It features protests and strikes, illegal blockades and burning tires, riot police, torched cars and tear gas. You will know the final act has come when the French government, as in 1995 or 2006, eventually backs down—in this case, over a labor law that would decentralize collective bargaining and undermine France’s rigid 35-hour workweek.

The current stand-off between Paris and its hard-line unions is unusual in one crucial respect. Its protagonists are all from the left. At stake isn’t just a piece of legislation, but control of the Socialist Party and the electoral future of the French left.

At center stage are two figures: Manuel Valls, the reformist Socialist prime minister, and Philippe Martinez, the leader of General Confederation of Labor, or CGT, France’s biggest and most militant union. Both men are in their 50s, of Spanish origin and, incidentally, supporters of the FC Barcelona soccer team. But the similarities stop there.

Not a graduate of France’s elite schools, Mr. Valls has spent more time than most thinking hard about modern social democracy, well before he got his current job. He has called his party passéiste (“outdated”), once campaigned to drop the word “socialist” from its name, and entered politics to support Michel Rocard, a moderate former prime minister, for whom he later worked.

Yet Mr. Valls’s market-friendly version of progressive politics, known as the deuxième gauche (“second left”), has long struggled to impose its ideas on the mainstream left. When he ran in the Socialist presidential primary in 2011, he secured less than 6% of the vote.

Across the burning tires stands Mr. Martinez, a one-time technician at Renault and former member of the French Communist Party, who sports a Mexican moustache and a permanent scowl. He took over the CGT a year ago and so still has a reputation to forge.

Mr. Martinez has taken class warfare to the barricades with bravado and with cause. He faces declining overall membership for unions—less than 3% of French workers belong to the CGT—as well as competition for members and political clout from more moderate unions that back Mr. Valls’s labor law.

The French have a historic sympathy for defiant figures of resistance. The CGT’s red and yellow flag, its megaphone politics and the images of burning braziers on the picket line form part of a romantic, muscular iconography of postwar struggle. Yet the prime minister is betting that the union’s hard-line tactics in reality represent the death throes of a worn-out movement, rather than genuine vigor or popular expression.

It was interesting to hear Mr. Valls, who invited a small group of foreign correspondents to his office last week, treat this conflict as a test case for socialism in power. Either he holds steady and proves that his politics can carry the day, or the left is condemned to obduracy and obsolescence. CONTINUE AT SITE

ISTANBUL—A car bomb targeting a police bus in central Istanbul on Tuesday killed 11 people and injured dozens, including civilians, officials said, in the latest in a string of attacks as Turkey fights Kurdish insurgents and Islamic State militants.

The blast hit at around 8:40 a.m. in the city’s Vezneciler district, not far from Istanbul University and the tourist landmarks of the historic center.

Istanbul Governor Vasip Sahin said a bomb in a car was detonated remotely as the police bus drove by. The explosion killed seven police officers and four civilians, and at least 36 people were wounded, he said.

Ambulances and police swarmed the scene. The impact of the blast left the police vehicle toppled over on its side, laying near the charred husk of a car. Several storefronts and a dormitory at the university had their windows shattered.

There were no immediate claims of responsibility, but the state run Anadolu news agency reported that Istanbul police had detained four people for questioning. CONTINUE AT SITE

Huh? Moshe Ya’alon’s nickname is “Bogey” should be short for bogus. He was justly sacked for failing to respect the position of the party he supposedly represented. Typical of Israel’s fractious politics, this is more of a tempest in a teapot than an earthquake…”Bogey” is more a chameleon than a hawk and his poor administration of the IDF was roundly criticized by all parties…..and, most egregious, he defended a member of the IDF who compared Israelis to Nazis…..rsk

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent decision to fire his widely respected defense minister, Moshe Ya’alon, and replace him with right-wing populist firebrand Avigdor Lieberman has triggered a political earthquake in Israel. Mr. Netanyahu now may face his most serious political challenge since taking office in 2009. His move also raises fundamental questions about the governance and character of the Jewish state.

Leading figures long associated with Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud Party have criticized his decision. Benny Begin, a Likud legislator, characterized it in a TV interview in Israel as “delusional.” Moshe Arens, a former defense minister, wrote in the Haaretz newspaper that “Choosing between an excellent defense minister serving in a narrow coalition . . . and obtaining a few more coalition votes should have been easy. But Benjamin Netanyahu made the wrong choice.”

Just months ago, a Likud press release had this to say about Mr. Lieberman: “He is a man who has never led even a single soldier to battle and never had to take a single operational decision in his life. He isn’t even qualified to be a television talking head on military issues.”

Mr. Ya’alon has resigned from the Likud Party and from the Knesset. But his withdrawal from politics is only temporary. In a letter to potential supporters, he writes: “I regard this period as a ‘time-out’ after which I intend to return and run for Israel’s national leadership.”

If he does, other well-known figures, such as former Likud Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar and former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, are likely to join him. A recent poll conducted for the Jerusalem Post found that a new party headed by Mr. Ya’alon would win as many seats in the Knesset as Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud. Parties that have been unwilling to enter the prime minister’s right-leaning government would be more inclined to join forces with Mr. Ya’alon to form a centrist coalition.

Moshe Ya’alon is no one’s idea of a dove. But his tough line is based on security, not ideology. “I’m not a supporter of ‘greater Israel,’ ” he has said. “I supported the Oslo Accords. I was willing to give up territory in return for peace. But the Palestinians are not partners for that kind of deal—at least not in the foreseeable future.” This argument suggests that Mr. Ya’alon would be open to the security-based proposals just unveiled by Commanders for Israel’s Security, a coalition of former members of the IDF, Shin Bet (the Israel Security Agency), Mossad and police forces. These proposals—including completing the West Bank security barrier, instituting strict border control along this barrier, and freezing settlement building—are designed to enhance Israel’s security while preserving the conditions for future negotiations for a two-state solution.CONTINUE AT SITE