Nigel Farage is Ukip – whether he leads the party or not is irrelevant
Nigel Farage didn’t set up Ukip, but he reshaped it in his image when he became the party’s leader. Mr Farage’s successor will be in place by September, bringing to an end his nine years at the helm. After clearing away the pint glasses and cigar smoke, how will they manage to fill the Farage-shaped void?
A “void” isn’t strictly speaking an accurate description, as the next Ukip leader will likely find that the man they replace is still keen to be involved. Mr Farage insists he is off because he wants his life back, but he has had some trouble letting go in the past. He tried resigning last year, declaring that he “never felt happier” after stepping down and that an “enormous weight” had been lifted from his shoulders. But he was back three days later, explaining why he was going to carry that weight on for a while longer. He stepped down for a bit longer ahead of the 2010 general election, but came back swiftly after it became clear that Lord Pearson was struggling as his interim replacement.
Mr Farage may have been “chief spokesman” at the time, but party insiders admit to me that he was seen as the “power behind the throne”, so his return to the Ukip helm was regraded as a mere formality.
If next Ukip leader wants to sketch out a different path to Mr Farage, they’ll have to be ready to face their predecessor down when he comes calling. I understand he took pains to make clear to MEPs last week that he may be resigning, but he would still be engaged. That’s hardly a surprise – as Ukip has been a project Mr Farage has spent over 20 years of his life working on. He took what Alan Sked originally launched as the Anti-Federalist League and replaced its academic dustiness with electorally potent blend of populism and charisma. The results speak for themselves: 4 million votes at the last general election and a national vote secured for Brexit. Ukip as it stands is Mr Farage’s baby, so it’s little surprise that he has a vested interest in making sure his successor doesn’t reverse the work he has done.
Not that he’d admit so publicly, as the outgoing Ukip leader was nonchalance itself on the issue of his party’s future over the weekend. Speaking on LBC, he insisted that his successor should take it in a “completely different direction”. But in truth it’ll be only on his terms.
The challenge facing the next Ukip leader is how to follow such a big character. One leading contender, Steven Woolfe, likes to compare this question to “what would happen after Ferguson left Man United“, asking: “Do you want to be Louis Van Gaal or David Moyes?”
One of the most regular criticisms of Ukip under Mr Farage has been that it is a “one-man band“, which is true in a way. He had the best tunes: Brussels and immigration. He pulled the punters in. But his bandmates had little time in the spotlight so couldn’t build up a fan base to rival his own. This has served to solidify how totemic Mr Farage is in Ukip, a man who can still control the party without even being its leader.
Few Ukip figures have the stature to defy him. Paul Nuttall, his long-serving deputy, was one of them, although he surprised Ukippers on Saturday by announcing he wouldn’t stand to be the next leader.
With Mr Nuttall out of the way, the race is clear for his fellow North-West MEP Mr Woolfe. The ambitious, media-savvy migration spokesman has yet to announce his interest, but he isn’t billed as the favourite by bookies without reason. Mr Farage won’t publicly back anyone, but his regular appearances alongside Mr Woolfe during the referendum campaign suggest that he would be far from unhappy to have him as his successor. The outgoing Ukip leader insisted on Saturday that he would try to “bite his tongue” about his potential successors, but did concede that his migration spokesman had “good qualities”.
Mr Woolfe’s candidacy would have a lot of positive selling points. He’s smart, passionate and a Ukip to the core. He’s mixed-race, so an ideal candidate to confound Ukip critics who accuse the party of racism. He grew up on a council estate in Manchester’s Moss Side, so would be an effective figurehead for Ukip’s offensive into Labour’s Northern heartlands.
But what will interest Mr Farage most is the man who could succeed him is very keen he remains involved. Mr Woolfe indicated as such last year when he floated to me the idea of the outgoing Ukip leader staying on as a “grand chairman“. “If he ever decides to go that’s what I hope he’ll come to do, because you’re going to need his guidance and wisdom, because he’s been through it,” he mused, praising Mr Farage as a “huge act to follow”. It’s perfectly possible then that he could enact this idea as Ukip leader, giving his predecessor an ideal position from which to oversee the party.
That’s not to say Mr Woolfe is Nigel Farage’s only hope of maintaining control of Ukip. Other potential leadership contenders owe their position in the party to Mr Farage’s patronage. So they won’t want to pay him back by snubbing him if they are elected as his successor.
Some Ukippers will have been worrying how their party would cope once Nigel Farage steps down. While he may no longer be their leader, he’ll be watching from afar to see that his successor builds on his legacy. The next Ukip leader will be working in his shadow, and Mr Farage will make sure they know that.
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Nigel Farage didn’t set up Ukip, but he reshaped it in his image when he became the party’s leader. Mr Farage’s successor will be in place by September, bringing to an end his nine years at the helm. After clearing away the pint glasses and cigar smoke, how will they manage to fill the Farage-shaped void?
A “void” isn’t strictly speaking an accurate description, as the next Ukip leader will likely find that the man they replace is still keen to be involved. Mr Farage insists he is off because he wants his life back, but he has had some trouble letting go in the past. He tried resigning last year, declaring that he “never felt happier” after stepping down and that an “enormous weight” had been lifted from his shoulders. But he was back three days later, explaining why he was going to carry that weight on for a while longer. He stepped down for a bit longer ahead of the 2010 general election, but came back swiftly after it became clear that Lord Pearson was struggling as his interim replacement.
Mr Farage may have been “chief spokesman” at the time, but party insiders admit to me that he was seen as the “power behind the throne”, so his return to the Ukip helm was regraded as a mere formality.
If next Ukip leader wants to sketch out a different path to Mr Farage, they’ll have to be ready to face their predecessor down when he comes calling. I understand he took pains to make clear to MEPs last week that he may be resigning, but he would still be engaged. That’s hardly a surprise – as Ukip has been a project Mr Farage has spent over 20 years of his life working on. He took what Alan Sked originally launched as the Anti-Federalist League and replaced its academic dustiness with electorally potent blend of populism and charisma. The results speak for themselves: 4 million votes at the last general election and a national vote secured for Brexit. Ukip as it stands is Mr Farage’s baby, so it’s little surprise that he has a vested interest in making sure his successor doesn’t reverse the work he has done.
Not that he’d admit so publicly, as the outgoing Ukip leader was nonchalance itself on the issue of his party’s future over the weekend. Speaking on LBC, he insisted that his successor should take it in a “completely different direction”. But in truth it’ll be only on his terms.
The challenge facing the next Ukip leader is how to follow such a big character. One leading contender, Steven Woolfe, likes to compare this question to “what would happen after Ferguson left Man United“, asking: “Do you want to be Louis Van Gaal or David Moyes?”
One of the most regular criticisms of Ukip under Mr Farage has been that it is a “one-man band“, which is true in a way. He had the best tunes: Brussels and immigration. He pulled the punters in. But his bandmates had little time in the spotlight so couldn’t build up a fan base to rival his own. This has served to solidify how totemic Mr Farage is in Ukip, a man who can still control the party without even being its leader.
Few Ukip figures have the stature to defy him. Paul Nuttall, his long-serving deputy, was one of them, although he surprised Ukippers on Saturday by announcing he wouldn’t stand to be the next leader.
With Mr Nuttall out of the way, the race is clear for his fellow North-West MEP Mr Woolfe. The ambitious, media-savvy migration spokesman has yet to announce his interest, but he isn’t billed as the favourite by bookies without reason. Mr Farage won’t publicly back anyone, but his regular appearances alongside Mr Woolfe during the referendum campaign suggest that he would be far from unhappy to have him as his successor. The outgoing Ukip leader insisted on Saturday that he would try to “bite his tongue” about his potential successors, but did concede that his migration spokesman had “good qualities”.
Mr Woolfe’s candidacy would have a lot of positive selling points. He’s smart, passionate and a Ukip to the core. He’s mixed-race, so an ideal candidate to confound Ukip critics who accuse the party of racism. He grew up on a council estate in Manchester’s Moss Side, so would be an effective figurehead for Ukip’s offensive into Labour’s Northern heartlands.
But what will interest Mr Farage most is the man who could succeed him is very keen he remains involved. Mr Woolfe indicated as such last year when he floated to me the idea of the outgoing Ukip leader staying on as a “grand chairman“. “If he ever decides to go that’s what I hope he’ll come to do, because you’re going to need his guidance and wisdom, because he’s been through it,” he mused, praising Mr Farage as a “huge act to follow”. It’s perfectly possible then that he could enact this idea as Ukip leader, giving his predecessor an ideal position from which to oversee the party.
That’s not to say Mr Woolfe is Nigel Farage’s only hope of maintaining control of Ukip. Other potential leadership contenders owe their position in the party to Mr Farage’s patronage. So they won’t want to pay him back by snubbing him if they are elected as his successor.
Some Ukippers will have been worrying how their party would cope once Nigel Farage steps down. While he may no longer be their leader, he’ll be watching from afar to see that his successor builds on his legacy. The next Ukip leader will be working in his shadow, and Mr Farage will make sure they know that.