Will Pence help Trump with Jewish voters? Richard Baehr
Indiana Governor Mike Pence will reportedly run with Donald Trump as his vice presidential nominee, with the selection to be officially announced shortly. Prior to his election as governor, Pence served in Congress as a member of the House of Representatives and had an excellent reputation as a very strong and knowledgeable supporter of Israel. Many Jewish Republicans hoped that he would run for the White House. Now, a key question going forward will be whether having Pence on the Trump ticket will enable more Jewish Republicans and some “never Trumpers” to back the ticket and financially support the campaign.
A sizable number of prominent Jewish Republicans and other mainstays of the pro-Israel cause have been unenthusiastic about Donald Trump as the GOP nominee. They have been put off both by some of his policy positions, and the way he ran his campaign for the nomination — including the personal attacks on other candidates. Others consider him insufficiently conservative — a former Democrat who successfully engineered a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. Trump has also had to deal with accusations that he has not been quick enough to criticize and separate himself from members of the “alt-right,” which includes nasty anti-Semites who have harassed some Jewish writers that were critical of Trump. His most recent controversy was over his sending out a tweet about Hillary Clinton accompanied by a graphic created by someone who did not belong to his campaign. The graphic called her the most corrupt candidate ever and showed a six-pointed star over a large amount of cash. Trump was accused of sending out an anti-Semitic tweet because of the association of the six-pointed star (the Jewish star of David) with mounds of money. Trump argued that the star was not a Jewish star, and could as easily have been a sheriff’s badge. In essence, he maintained that this was an example of politically correct hypersensitivity at work and that many Americans were sick of it. Trump is very uncomfortable with appearing to cave to this kind of pressure. His campaign has been built on an image of strong leadership, and bowing to critics could damage this appeal.
There is no evidence whatsoever in his long background in business and media that would lead one to believe that Trump is an anti-Semite. He has worked with, hired and been friends with many prominent Jewish people, and contributed to Jewish and pro-Israel causes. This is perfectly natural for a successful businessman in the New York area. His daughter Ivanka married a Modern Orthodox Jewish man, underwent a conversion, and is now leading a traditional Jewish lifestyle, keeping kosher at home, and observing the Sabbath. Whatever one thinks of Trump, he appears to have very close relationships with his adult children and relies on them for support and guidance in both business and in his political efforts this year. His Jewish son-in-law Jared Kushner took to the pages of the weekly newspaper he owns, the Observer, to defend Trump against charges of anti-Semitism and bias in general.
“The fact is that my father-in-law is an incredibly loving and tolerant person who has embraced my family and our Judaism since I began dating my wife. His support has been unwavering and from the heart. I have personally seen him embrace people of all racial and religious backgrounds, at his companies and in his personal life. This caricature that some want to paint as someone who has ‘allowed’ or encouraged intolerance just doesn’t reflect the Donald Trump I know. The from-the-heart reactions of this man are instinctively pro-Jewish and pro-Israel. Just last week, at an event in New Hampshire, an audience member asked about wasting money on ‘Zionist Israel.’ My father-in-law didn’t miss a beat in replying that ‘Israel is a very, important ally of the United States and we are going to protect them 100%.’ No script, no handlers, no teleprompter– just a strong opinion from the heart.”
Trump’s remarks in New Hampshire put him on the same page as his new running mate, who has always seen Israel as a key strategic ally, and a country with Western values similar to our own. It also adds a true conservative to the ticket, someone very much in step with conservative thinking and policy over the last two decades. Pence was on very good terms with House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has been enthusiastic about his addition to the ticket. Under normal circumstances, selecting Pence as VP would have warmed the hearts of the writers and readers of Commentary, The Weekly Standard and the National Review. Instead these publications have been dominated by “never Trump” messengers for the past six months, and it is not at all clear how many of them will now grudgingly accept him, perhaps seeing the possibility of a one term presidency with Pence succeeding him in 2020; or contemplating what four or eight years of Hillary Clinton as president will mean; or how Trump, whatever his defects, would likely select far more conservative judges than Clinton, including to Supreme Court vacancies.
Two states where stronger Jewish support for Trump could help him are Florida and Pennsylvania. Florida is always close, and Pennsylvania seems to be more competitive this year than in prior presidential elections. The Republicans have not won the keystone state since 1988.
What has not been mentioned so far is that Pence may have much more of an impact on a very large group of pro-Israel voters who are not Jewish — namely evangelical Christians and Mormons. Evangelicals are by far the most Republican voting group and dwarf other groups in size, with some estimates of as many as 80 million evangelicals in the country. In recent elections, they have provided 70% or more of their votes to Republicans running for president, though turnout was by some accounts down in 2012. (One explanation was that Mitt Romney, a Mormon, had less appeal to evangelicals.)
Some early surveys have suggested that Trump’s support among religious conservatives was weak and that turnout might also be a problem. In the primaries, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the most religiously observant evangelicals, and Trump the somewhat less observant. Pence would have been a popular choice for president among evangelicals had he run, and he would have competed with Cruz for their votes. Can a number two on a national ticket, with a long record of social Conservatism and pro-Israel activism fire up this important base of voters? For Trump to win, he needs to expand the voter base among Republicans and add new voters: disaffected blue collar Democrats who have been enthusiastic about Trump’s message to bring America back. Trump needs help with the organized Republican community. Pence might turn out to be a very smart pick to accomplish this.
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