Hillary Clinton, Underdog Even after Philadelphia, the momentum of the race to the White House points in Trump’s direction. By Douglas E. Schoen
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-underdog-1469831048
After what even critics said was a highly effective Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton appears to have emerged as . . . the underdog.
Conventional wisdom has long held that Mrs. Clinton will capture the White House in November, regardless of the challenges her candidacy faces. With three months to go, that calculus looks shaky. The 2016 election is trending toward Donald Trump.
Yes, the race has been fluid and will likely remain so. Mrs. Clinton might get a solid convention bounce. But even in the best-case scenario, it seems unlikely to surpass Mr. Trump’s own bounce—five to six points in some polls, which is greater than President Obama’s in 2008 or 2012. The Republican’s boost is largely the result of Mr. Trump’s successful speech in Cleveland. Fifty-seven percent of those watching had a “very positive” reaction, and 56% said that they were more likely to vote for him. You’d never know it from listening to the mainstream press, which condemned the speech as “dark.”
Right now the momentum points in one direction: Mr. Trump’s. The race is tied in the Real Clear Politics polling average, which represents a reversal in his fortunes of three to four points. Earlier this week, with the GOP convention still fresh, Mr. Trump had the clear advantage and edged ahead of Mrs. Clinton. As polls during the first days of the Democratic convention began to be factored in, a statistical tie emerged.
It’s too soon to say whether the final two days of the Philadelphia confab will change the dynamic. But there has been clear movement to Mr. Trump in the past month. Look at the CNN/ORC poll for a four-way race, including the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Mr. Trump has gained seven points since mid-July and now beats Mrs. Clinton 44% to 39%, with Mr. Johnson at 9% and Ms. Stein at 3%. In a head-to-head matchup, the Republican wins 48% to 45%.
Mr. Trump’s lead is more than double that in an LA Times/USC survey released this week, which shows him winning 47% to 40%. And in the CNN/ORC poll he’s up by 18 points with independents—one reason why former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was enlisted to deliver an impassioned speech Wednesday in Philadelphia.
Nate Silver’s 538 “now-cast”—meant to simulate what would happen if Election Day were today—also shows clear movement in Mr. Trump’s direction. Only a month ago, Mr. Silver gave the Republican about a 20% chance of winning. That has risen to a 47% chance. Mr. Silver still gives Mrs. Clinton better than even odds of becoming president, but that’s down significantly from a few weeks ago.
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