The Limits of Trumpism Candidates who run on his agenda are losing in Republican primaries.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-limits-of-trumpism-1472683312
Is Donald Trump’s presidential nomination the vanguard of a new political movement in the Republican Party or an accident of circumstance in this odd election year? The answer won’t be clear at least until November, but the evidence in recent GOP primaries suggests it may be the latter.
That message came through Tuesday with the thumping primary victories by Senators Marco Rubio in Florida and John McCain in Arizona. Mr. Rubio received more than 70% of the vote in a multicandidate field that included businessman Carlos Beruff, who campaigned as a Trump clone on trade and immigration. He spent $8 million of his own money but didn’t get a fifth of the vote.
Mr. McCain defied predictions of a close primary in Arizona by whipping former state senator Kelli Ward by double digits. Ms. Ward was backed by Robert Mercer, the hedge-fund operator who financed Ted Cruz. Ms. Ward ran hard against immigration and tried to portray the five-term Senator, who turned 80 years old Monday, as a tainted fixture of Washington.
The impact of immigration is especially intriguing in these primaries. Messrs. Rubio and McCain were members of the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” Senators who negotiated the 2013 immigration reform. That bill passed the Senate but never made it to the House floor amid a conservative panic. Their opponents tried to make those Senate votes disqualifying, but GOP primary voters seem to have put immigration well down the list of priorities.
These races follow the defeat of businessman Paul Nehlen, another Trumpian, who received less than 16% against House Speaker Paul Ryan in Wisconsin in early August. Mr. Nehlen received lots of out-of-state money and publicity from the Trump network, especially Breitbart.com.
All of this cuts against the right-left analysis that Mr. Trump’s nomination means the GOP has now become a nativist and protectionist party. Those issues have long had support among a GOP minority but not as party litmus tests.
Mr. Trump ran on both issues, but his victory may have owed more to a confluence of unrepeatable factors: his unique celebrity, the 16-person field, tactical mistakes by his competitors, and the luck that his main opponent in the decisive Indiana primary was the much-disliked Mr. Cruz. As for immigration, even Mr. Trump is now recognizing he has to shift to the middle to win in November.
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