Manila Turns Anti-American Duterte seems ready to trade sovereignty for Chinese cash.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/manila-turns-anti-american-1473871189
Days after Rodrigo Duterte called Barack Obama a “son of a whore,” the Philippine President announced he would expel U.S. counterterror forces from the southern Philippines, cease joint South China Sea patrols with the U.S. Navy and begin buying arms from Russia and China—a trifecta of policy shifts that will harm regional security.
“I do not like the Americans. It’s simply a matter of principle for me,” Mr. Duterte said Monday. His record backs him up.
Before winning election in May, Mr. Duterte was the longtime mayor of Davao in the restive southern province of Mindanao, where he railed against the presence of U.S. forces who were invited by previous national governments to fight al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf terrorists. As mayor he kept U.S. drones out of Davao, refused to become Philippine Defense Minister for fear of working with Washington, and expressed “hatred” for the U.S. over a 2002 explosion in a Davao hotel for which he blames the FBI.
U.S. operations in Mindanao over the past two decades—counterterror raids, training of local forces, economic development—helped calm an insurgency that was killing Filipinos and foreigners by the hundreds, corrupting Philippine armed forces and bedeviling national leaders in Manila. But Mr. Duterte prefers to see the U.S. as an ex-colonial overlord trying to reimpose its will.
Many Filipinos assumed Mr. Duterte’s views would moderate once he became President. His predecessor, Benigno Aquino, initially courted China but then dramatically deepened security ties with the U.S. after Beijing escalated its assault on Philippine rights in the South China Sea. But three months into his tenure, and despite the landmark international-tribunal verdict against China’s maritime behavior in July, the new leader is increasingly spurning Washington for Beijing.
“We’re not cutting our alliances,” Mr. Duterte said Tuesday, “but we will follow an independent foreign policy.” This appears to amount to a pre-emptive concession that defending Philippine sovereignty at sea is futile. His priorities are a domestic drug war and peace talks with rebels in the south, missions for which he prefers Chinese assistance. “Only China will help us,” he said after Beijing offered to build drug-rehab centers for Filipinos last month. “America just gave you principles of law and nothing else.”
It’s possible Mr. Duterte is posturing for tough-guy points at home and brownie points from Beijing, which may extend soft loans for Philippine railway construction as it apparently has for arms purchases. His move to expel the U.S. from Mindanao is largely symbolic, as only a few dozen trainers remain. As a Philippine army spokesman said, “The recent pronouncement will affect only a token number of American servicemen who are confined mainly in Zamboanga City.”
But there’s a risk Mr. Duterte is fashioning himself as an Asian Hugo Chávez, who tells the Yanks to go home and sells China acquiescence to its takeover of the South China Sea. This would invite Chinese control of strategic waters and an intense backlash from the Filipino people, who overwhelmingly say they trust the U.S. over China. Mr. Duterte has joked about the possibility of a coup attempt against him, but a return to instability isn’t what tens of millions of impoverished Filipinos need.
The immediate priority for the U.S. is to try to keep ties as productive as possible with all levels of the Duterte government. Public opinion may constrain his worst impulses, and Beijing’s bullying could well alienate him as it did Mr. Aquino. U.S. access to Philippine bases near the South China Sea, secured under the Aquino administration two years ago, is far more significant than anything in Mindanao.
The Philippines remains an important U.S. ally in an increasingly unstable region. Its erratic President may eventually come to understand the stakes.
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