Andrew Browne :For China, ‘Clouds Are Fading Away’ in the Philippines Duterte’s abrupt diplomatic and military shift from Washington heartens Beijing, threatens U.S. alliance
http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-china-clouds-are-fading-away-in-the-philippines-1475554864
With the exception of the Vietnam War, America’s alliance system in East Asia has helped keep the peace for more than half a century.
Now it is in trouble. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s progression from abusive name-calling to a more broadly articulated anti-American hostility has been swift and stunning. It threatens one of Washington’s crucial Asian alliances and sets back U.S. President Barack Obama ’s signature “pivot” to the region.
China is jubilant over Mr. Duterte’s cooling relations with Washington after it clashed for years with the Philippine leader’s predecessor.
“The clouds are fading away,” China’s ambassador to Manila, Zhao Jianhua, said at a Chinese National Day reception. “The sun is rising over the horizon, and will shine beautifully on the new chapter of bilateral relations.”
At first it looked like a fit of pique: One month ago, Mr. Duterte called Mr. Obama a “son of a whore” over U.S. criticism of his war on drugs that has strewn the country with thousands of corpses. His rage quickly hardened.
A few days later Mr. Duterte proposed removing American military advisers from the troubled southern region of Mindanao. Then he declared he was shopping in China and Russia for military supplies readily available in the U.S. Mr. Duterte will lead a Philippine business delegation to Beijing this month.
And last week he declared an end to joint U.S.-Philippine naval exercises in the South China Sea to avoid provoking China. The last exercises, ostensibly, began on Tuesday.
Mr. Duterte’s outbursts come at a moment of rising doubt in America about the country’s role in the world. Donald Trump thinks that alliances are a bad deal for America—essentially a form of charity for countries rich enough to pay for their own defense. He seems to be in tune with growing numbers of Americans. Asked in 2013 whether the U.S. “Should mind its own business internationally” 52% of respondents to a Pew poll said “yes.”
In their recent book “America Abroad: the United States’ Global Role in the 21st Century,” Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, two academics at Dartmouth College, say that “the vast majority” of scholars who write on American grand strategy believe the time has come for America to pull back. They argue against such a move, saying it would lead to arms races and nuclear proliferation.
Now, Mr. Duterte is going a step further, calling into question an accord to let U.S. forces use Philippine military bases. That landmark 2014 deal was poignant in that Manila ejected U.S. troops in the early 1990s. It sent a powerful message: America is back. CONTINUE AT SITE
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