RUTHFULLY YOURS

Bending the Arc of History At the start of the 20th century, average life expectancy globally was just 31 years. Today it is 71. Will this progress continue? Matthew Rees reviews two books about the future of progress and innovation. By Matthew Rees

Posted By Ruth King on December 13th, 2016

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bending-the-arc-of-history-1481588883

In a time of rising global prosperity and newfangled technological wizardry, it’s easy to forget that, for virtually all of human history, living standards have been very low. Even so, there are those who respond to economic dynamism, and the accompanying volatility, by pining for the supposed stability of the past. Others look ahead and claim that economic progress is imperiled by bad policies or bad business practices. These weighty issues, among others, are taken up in two new books whose authors have divergent, though neatly complementary, views.

In “Progress,” the Swedish author Johan Norberg deploys reams of data to show just how much life has improved—especially over the past few decades but over the past couple of centuries as well. Each chapter is devoted to documenting progress in a single category, including food, sanitation, life expectancy, poverty, violence, the environment, literacy and equality.

In response to people who look fondly on the “good old days,” Mr. Norberg underscores just how grim they could be. Rampant disease, famine and violence routinely killed off millions. In the 14th century, the so-called Black Death wiped out a third of Europe’s population. Five hundred years later, cholera outbreaks throughout the world led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and even killed a U.S. president, James Polk. Out of the squalor of everyday life came an outlook best expressed by Thomas Malthus in 1779: “Premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.”

Set against such misery are the advances of the modern era. At the start of the 20th century, average life expectancy globally was just 31 years. Today it is 71. Every country in the world has seen improvements in infant and child mortality since 1950. The so-called Green Revolution has increased food supply and reduced famine in parts of the world where malnutrition and starvation had long seemed inevitable. Throughout the world, there’s less violence, more literacy and greater political freedom.

Will this progress continue? Mr. Norberg thinks so. He cautions that “progress is not automatic” but doesn’t elaborate. His otherwise persuasive narrative would have benefited from an exploration of future threats to well-being, or worrying trends, such as the dramatic increase in obesity rates—in the United States but also in other parts of the globe—or falling birthrates throughout the world (in China in particular).

Picking up where Mr. Norberg leaves off are Fredrik Erixon and Björn Weigel, two fellow Swedes who make a thought-provoking and refreshingly non-ideological argument that a bleak future lies ahead unless capitalism undergoes a shake-up. In “The Innovation Illusion” they argue that “there is too little breakthrough innovation . . . and the capitalist system that used to promote eccentricity and embrace ingenuity all too often produces mediocrity.” CONTINUE AT SITE

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