France’s Stark Choice Macron vs. Le Pen reveals the French nationalist divide. see note please
https://www.wsj.com/articles/frances-stark-choice-1492987662
This sentence “And Ms. Le Pen’s vigorous defense of French civilization against threats real (terrorism) and imagined (Muslim immigrants in general) resonates. Mr. Macron will need credible answers to the terrorist threat—witness Thursday’s attack on the Champs-Élysées—and a growing disconnect between French society and the impoverished immigrant (often Muslim) communities in the banlieues.” The threats of terrorism from Muslim immigrants is not “imagined”…but real indeed! rsk
Sharply divided French voters on Sunday gave themselves Emmanuel Macron as a mainstream alternative to far-right Marine Le Pen in next month’s second round of presidential voting. The French will now decide between two very different visions of French nationalism.
Incomplete tallies as we went to press suggested that the independent former Socialist Mr. Macron would finish first in a crowded field, with about 23% of the vote. Ms. Le Pen of the National Front was close behind. Free-market conservative François Fillon and far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon each won a little under 20%. French voters remain deeply divided about how to jolt their country out of its malaise. But they seem willing, for now and only barely, to give the center another chance.
The most stunning result is the repudiation of the two mainstream parties that have ruled France for decades. Voters rejected the ruling Socialists but also Mr. Fillon of the center-right Republicans. Mr. Fillon might have fared better if not for his personal scandals, but voters also remember the promise and failure of the last Republican President, Nicolas Sarkozy, six years ago.
Socialist President François Hollande started his term in 2012 promising a return to doctrinaire socialism before attempting a shift toward economic reform that never materialized. Unemployment has remained mostly stuck above 10%, with youth unemployment near 25%. Economic growth barely scrapes above 1% in a good year, and France’s educated young flee to London, New York, Hong Kong and other global centers.
Benoît Hamon, representing the ruling Socialist Party, notched a distant fifth place with less than 7%. The other left-wing loser Sunday was Mr. Mélenchon. Though he is personally popular for his authenticity, voters rejected this French Bernie Sanders, rightly doubting that tripling down on statism is the way to revive France’s fortunes.
The French will now have a choice between two very different political “outsiders.” Mr. Macron’s case in next month’s runoff is that to regain its former vitality France must reform and compete better with the world.
The 39-year-old former banker would rebalance the scales between the state and private economy by cutting thousands of government jobs and reducing corporate taxes to a 25% rate from 33.3%. He’d reform labor laws that protect incumbent workers at the expense of opportunities for the young and unemployed, but he’d keep France in the free-trade, free-immigration zone of the European Union.
Market enthusiasm for Mr. Macron—the euro is already rallying—reflects the boost this would give France’s ability to attract job-creating global capital. His agenda isn’t as ambitious as Mr. Fillon’s, but Mr. Macron’s moderation enhances his appeal to center-left voters in the runoff.
Ms. Le Pen’s vision of France harkens back to an almost pre-World War II nationalism. Although she’s often described as a right-winger, Ms. Le Pen’s platform would find sympathy on the far left. She advocates abandoning the euro and the EU, which have acted as partial counterbalances to Paris’s statist habits.
Instead, she supports trade protectionism and severe limits on immigration, as well as a greater role for the state in supporting French companies. On foreign policy and national security, she would turn away from France’s traditional Atlantic orientation and toward Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
The polls to date suggest Mr. Macron will easily defeat Ms. Le Pen, as Jacques Chirac defeated Ms. Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, the first time a National Front candidate made the runoff in 2002. But no one should be so sure. France’s economy has suffered another 15 years of mismanagement by mainstream parties.
And Ms. Le Pen’s vigorous defense of French civilization against threats real (terrorism) and imagined (Muslim immigrants in general) resonates. Mr. Macron will need credible answers to the terrorist threat—witness Thursday’s attack on the Champs-Élysées—and a growing disconnect between French society and the impoverished immigrant (often Muslim) communities in the banlieues.
The French choice is described in some quarters as pitting the “populist” Ms. Le Pen against the establishment Mr. Macron. But it’s more accurate to say they represent different visions of French nationalism. Ms. Le Pen’s blood-and-soil offer is well known. The challenge for Mr. Macron in the next two weeks is to offer a credible vision and program for an economically prosperous and confident France that is no longer the sick man of Europe.
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