Joel Zinberg, M.D., J.D., F.A.C.S., a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, is a practicing surgeon at Mount Sinai Hospital and an associate clinical professor of surgery at the Icahn School of Medicine.
In the near term, the health-care plan that the Senate released this week—officially, the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA)—will provide stability to individual health-care markets and state governments. It commits to funding the cost-sharing reductions that insurers are required to provide, but which Congress had not funded adequately through 2019. This should calm insurers uncertain about staying in the individual-insurance markets. Anthem, a major insurance player in both the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces and Medicaid, has announced that the Senate bill “will markedly improve the stability of the individual market and moderate premium increases.” The Congressional Budget Office predicts that premiums will be 30 percent lower than under current law by 2020. The BCRA will also allow insurers to charge older enrollees up to five times what they charge 20-year-olds—the standard before the ACA—rather than the 3-to-1 limit that Obamacare imposes. This should make the market more attractive to insurers and insurance more affordable for young people, who have resisted signing up under the ACA.
The BCRA also delays the end of enhanced federal funding for Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion and begins phasing it out with a gradual reduction in the enhanced federal payment share between 2021 and 2024. States would be free after 2024 to continue coverage for the expanded population covered under the ACA, but at regular federal matching rates. This should give governors ample time to plan if and how they want to continue expanded Medicaid eligibility. It will also give them time to expand private insurance markets to those at or below the poverty line, since the BCRA removes the lower income limit on premium tax credits to purchase insurance. Adults displaced by the phase-out of the Medicaid expansion and residents of states that did not expand Medicaid could use these credits to purchase private insurance.
In the longer term, the BCRA makes it far more likely that Obamacare’s section 1332 “innovation waivers” can become effective tools for state-based experimentation and reforms to improve insurance coverage. These waivers let states modify or eliminate many central ACA provisions, including the rules regarding the premium tax credits and cost-sharing subsidies and which plans and essential health benefits (EHB) must be offered on the insurance exchanges. The BCRA ends ACA restrictions that have inhibited waiver applications. It also streamlines the application process and creates a $2 billion fund to motivate states to apply for waivers.
But the Congressional Budget Office’s prediction that the BCRA will lead to 22 million more uninsured by 2026 has dampened enthusiasm for the Republican proposal—even among Republicans. The problem is that the CBO’s estimates of coverage under current law are based on its March 2016 baseline, which is known to be inaccurate. The CBO predicts that the BCRA will decrease coverage in the non-group market, including marketplaces, by 7 million, yet concedes that “enrollment in the marketplaces under current law will probably be lower than was projected under March 2016 baseline used in this analysis.”
The CBO’s estimate that 15 million fewer people will be covered by Medicaid in 2026 as compared with current law is also suspect. About a third of this loss derives from people whom “CBO projects would, under current law, become eligible in the future as additional states adopted the ACA’s option to expand eligibility.” It’s unlikely that the 19 states that have thus far not expanded eligibility under the ACA would expand if the law remains unchanged, especially since, under Obamacare, states now have to start sharing some of the financial burden for these newly eligible enrollees with the federal government.