What the media won’t tell you: Since the election of Donald Trump, most economic news has been positive.
Since the election of Donald Trump, most economic news has been positive despite the lack of media coverage. Prior to November 2016, some financial reporters predicted losses for the stock market and our national economy should Hillary Clinton lose the election. Yet, since the 2016 election, the Dow is up 20.5% and 12% since January, the NASDAQ is up 21% and 18% since January, and the S&P is up 16% and 12% since January. This demonstrates the limitations of following the “experts” who do not disclose their political prejudices.
The July jobs report includes 209,000 new jobs. This brings the total to over 1 million since January. But the new cover of Newsweek carries a caricature of Trump in a lounger with the title “Lazy Boy.” It is insulting, inaccurate (as he puts in hours most people half his age could not manage), and one-sided.
A look at the economic parameters gives one a sense that the doldrums may be ending. During the Obama years, we averaged less than 2% growth and were told that this was the new normal. To the forgotten Americans, this is unacceptable. Under President G.W. Bush, we saw the end of real income growth nationally, which imperils support for our republic. The health of our economy provides a sense of the national mood. Hence, the forgotten supported the election of Donald Trump, who promised to change the situation for dislocated workers and unemployed citizens, long dismissed by their political leaders.
A perusal of the numbers is quite encouraging: the national unemployment rate is now 4.3%, a 16-year low. Now 7 million are unemployed, which is a shrinking number. The labor participation rate has risen to 62.9%. There are still 5.3 million people employed part-time due to economic reasons. Some 1.8 million people are considered long-term unemployed and constitute 25.9% of the total unemployed. But the number of discouraged workers has declined to 536,000. Though there was improvement of the national economy during the Obama years, this acceleration of good news must upset Democrats and liberals who wish to unseat Trump.
The lack of growth in national income is hard to explain, according to the financial media. Economists have claimed for years that full employment is 4% or so. Under their thinking, the pressures for necessary workers should have an upward effect upon incomes. Only among the lowest wage-earners is income rising. This may provide some new voters for Trump’s re-election.
Reporters have missed possible reasons for this situation. Employers calculate total compensation packages for employees. This includes benefits such as Social Security taxes, Medicare taxes, unemployment taxes, vacation time, sick leave, health insurance costs, and miscellaneous expenses. The exploding cost of health care insurance premiums due to Obamacare mandates and fewer insurance providers has cut into the available dollars to give raises. The Trump administration must emphasize this as a way to get Republican senators to move on reform of the Affordable Care Act.