To Promote Nonproliferation, Kill the Iran Deal Now The Europeans won’t do business with Tehran if that means losing access to American banks. By Jamil N. Jaffer
https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-promote-nonproliferation-kill-the-iran-deal-now-1525034512?cx_testId=16&cx_testVariant=cx&cx_artPos=1&cx_tag=collabctx&cx_navSource=newsReel#cxrecs_s
Will President Trump terminate the Iran nuclear deal? Many national-security experts are concerned he will, by refusing to waive sanctions that are up for renewal in mid-May. Some worry that unilaterally reimposing sanctions on Iran would isolate the U.S. internationally, as Europe’s leaders still broadly support the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Others argue that the JCPOA is working and Iran is largely abiding by its commitments. Still others urge the U.S. to continue waiving sanctions if the Europeans are willing to consider potential changes to the deal.
Each of these camps is deeply misguided. Should Mr. Trump refuse to continue the Obama -era policy of waiving Iran sanctions and opt to reimpose them unilaterally, Europe will have no choice but to go along. The key sanctions imposed by Congress in 2011-12—in the face of staunch opposition from the Obama White House—are “secondary” sanctions, meaning they operate by imposing costs on countries that continue to do business with Iran. Under this regime, every nation must choose between doing business with Iran and maintaining access to the American banking system. This isn’t a real choice, since no country can function economically by cutting itself off from the U.S.
Indeed, the Europeans lobbied hard against these sanctions—and convinced the Obama White House to do the same—because they knew they could never choose Iran over the U.S. They were right. When it became clear that congressional support for the sanctions was sufficient to override Mr. Obama’s threatened veto, Europe also went along, albeit unhappily. The massive economic pressure produced by the sanctions forced the Iranian regime to the negotiating table for the first time in years.
The Obama administration ultimately squandered its negotiating leverage on a weak deal with deep and enduring flaws: extremely short sunsets, after which Iran will be able to sprint to a nuclear weapon even faster than before; the ability to conduct research under the deal on advanced uranium centrifuges that will further shorten Iran’s breakout time; expanded testing of ballistic missiles that would widen the kill zone of an Iranian nuclear weapon; a self-testing regime on existing nuclear military sites that protects Iran’s illegal weaponization activities; sanctions relief providing an economic boost to the Iranian regime, removing significant pressure and providing the time, space, and resources to work on a valid warhead design; and no link whatever to Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region or support for terrorist groups world-wide like Hezbollah. CONTINUE AT SITE
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