Putting a New Squeeze on Iran Pompeo lays out a strategy of severe economic pressure.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putting-a-new-squeeze-on-iran-1526945180
Hard on the heels of U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear accord, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday laid out a new strategy to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional imperialism. The U.S. plans to impose severe financial and economic pressure while offering Iran better diplomatic and commercial relations if it changes its threatening course.
In 2015 Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry made a $100 billion bet that their Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would end Iran’s nuclear program while transforming the Islamic Republic into a responsible member of the world community. The wager didn’t pay.
While delaying its nuclear dream a few years, Iran has spent the windfall from sanctions relief financing proxy wars through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen. The Iranian economy languished, and Iranians suffered. “ Qasem Soleimani has been playing with house money that has become blood money,” Mr. Pompeo said about Iran’s Qods Force general.
The new U.S. strategy promises to restore a hard economic vise that will squeeze Iran’s funds for adventurism. The sanctions regime in place before the nuclear deal already is returning, Mr. Pompeo said, and new penalties will be “the strongest sanctions in history.” Iran will have to choose: “Either fight to keep its economy off life support at home or keep squandering precious wealth on fights abroad. It will not have the resources to do both.”
Critics insist the U.S. can’t replicate the previous sanctions because the Europeans, Russians and Chinese aren’t supportive. The European Union in particular is exploring ways to circumvent U.S. sanctions, but that is harder than it sounds. As Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg note nearby, the Iran economy is under pressure and its currency is reeling.
The U.S. over Iran is an easy choice: EU countries bought and sold about $25 billion in goods with Iran in 2017, compared with some $720 billion with the U.S. European multinationals like Total and Siemens are already closing shop in Iran, and more than 30% of Total’s shares are held by Americans. No doubt the Europeans resent having their foreign-policy choices limited by the relative strength of the U.S. economy, but they also have a stake in restraining Iran.
Iran’s expansionism has accelerated since the nuclear deal, and its missile tests have increased. Iran has helped turn Syria into “71,000 square miles of kill zone,” Mr. Pompeo said, and the refugees it has caused to leave Syria “include foreign fighters who have crossed into Europe and threatened terrorist attacks in those countries.” Yet Europe hasn’t imposed a single new sanction on Iran for such behavior since the nuclear deal was signed.
Mr. Pompeo struck a conciliatory tone with Europe, and the U.S. shouldn’t want a breach of relations. In that spirit, President Trump would be wise to take his steel and aluminum tariffs off the table for the EU. A united front against Iran is more important for U.S. interests.
If Iran’s leaders agree to new nuclear terms and change their behavior, Mr. Pompeo said, the U.S. will roll back sanctions and establish full diplomatic and commercial relationships. The U.S. would support Iran’s economic modernization and help reintegrate the country into the international economic system.
Mr. Pompeo also briefly addressed the Iranian people, though he could have spent more time on direct appeals to their interests. President Trump doesn’t care much for soaring rhetoric about democracy and human rights, but the Administration’s strategy will need to push a consistent, democratic message while exposing the regime’s corruption.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted Monday that U.S. diplomacy is a delusional “sham” and “Iran, meanwhile, is working with partners for post-US JCPOA solutions.” It’s unlikely the mullahs will meet Mr. Pompeo’s terms on their own, but as tougher sanctions set in, an increasingly angry Iranian public could force their hand.
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