JUNE 2018: THE MONTH THAT WAS SYDNEY WILLIAMS
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Perhaps the universe operates according to a plan? I don’t know. But life on earth is in constant and unpredictable flux. Change is ever-present, whether caused by nature or man. What is needed are pilots to help navigate treacherous shoals, not whether to move left or right, but to plot courses based on a moral compass, in accordance with the ideals laid down by the Founding Fathers and one dependent on simple, proven principles of right and wrong, like common sense, the Ten Commandments, or Jordan Peterson’s “12 Rules for Life.”
No month is without news highlights and June was no different. Certainly, Singapore vied for top billing. However, the story in the winning envelope was the release of the Inspector General’s report on its probe into the actions of the FBI and the Justice Department during the summer of 2016. It tells a story of corruption, collusion and bias within the nation’s premier law enforcement agency. Even The New York Times reported that it painted a harsh portrait of the FBI during the 2016 presidential election, describing a destructive culture in which James Comey, the former director was “insubordinate… Senior officials privately bashed Donald J. Trump, and agents came to distrust prosecutors.” Current FBI Director Christopher Wray, in a subsequent press conference, appeared in denial: He said he took the report seriously, but nothing in it “impugns the integrity” of the FBI. “Our brand is doing just fine.” The Wall Street Journal reported: “Though IG Michael Horowitz’s conclusions are measured, his facts are damning.” While the report claimed there was no documentary or testimonial evidence to suggest political bias, facts suggested otherwise. Most damning was the text exchange between Peter Strzok, the FBI agent in charge of the Trump-Russia investigation and his paramour, top FBI lawyer Lisa Page. In August 2016, Ms. Page texted Mr. Strzok, “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right?” Mr. Strzok responded, “No. No, he won’t. We’ll stop it.”
On the day the news broke, the Times gave space for Mr. Comey to respond in an op-ed, which he did, in his familiar, sanctimonious manner, giving lie to the title of his self-serving book. One consequence of the IG report: the Mueller investigation may face a legal obstacle. As David Rivkin and Elizabeth Price Foley recently wrote in The Wall Street Journal, the investigation “is tainted by antecedent political bias.”
The reason this story came before the Trump-Kim meeting is that a self-governing democracy, which is the United States, relies on trust in its institutions, especially those that enforce the nation’s laws. The principal threat to democracy is not an external enemy; it is when the foundations of a republic crumble from within – when freedoms give way to the insidious demands of omnipotent government, when emotional outcries supersede rational responses. Its demise can be a function of a people grown too dependent on government’s largesse, when people forego personal freedom for the comfort of assured care. Unscrupulous politicians take advantage of people’s proclivity to be led. Democracies can also end in anarchy, with a loss of trust in leaders and government institutions. The Founder’s concept of liberty held that self-determined government would include checks and balances, a free people but with the constraint of tradition and civil behavior, all bound by the rule of law. Michael Horowitz’s report was an expose that all is not as it should be.
Clues to watch for in faltering democracies and fledgling tyrannies are more government: higher taxes, increased regulations, and spending that rises faster than GDP. Watch for rogue bureaucrats who put politics above the will of the people, smooth-talking politicians who purport to do good, but in fact deceive citizens and deprive them of liberty. Look out for intensification of partisanship, an inability of Congress to function and the refusal of government employees to heed electoral results. Beware of a backlash.
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The other big news during the month was Singapore – the meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. Whether their agreement results in de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is anyone’s guess, but it was a step forward. The two participants spoke in glowing terms, despite mutual insults of a few months earlier. Reaction was as expected: Republican lawmakers applauded the summit but were cautious regarding expectations. Democrats said Mr. Trump made too many concessions. Chuck Schumer called it “purely a reality show.” Nancy Pelosi claimed the “hasty” meeting “elevated” the Communist dictator to the world stage. “Never-Trumpers” were silent. The pact to which this agreement is compared is the Iranian deal of 2015. But there are differences. For one, no $400 million in cash has been delivered to Pyongyang on wooden pallets, as was sent to Tehran in 2015. For another, compare Mike Pompeo and John Bolton to John Kerry and Susan Rice. Which team is tougher, more willing to take the harder line?
As for me, I am from Missouri, skeptical but hopeful, despite Mr. Trump’s propensity for braggadocio. What makes me skeptical are Mr. Trump’s egotism, his imperviousness to criticism and the history of two prior Kim regimes. What makes me hopeful is the overwhelming negative reaction on the part of mainstream media. For example, an article in the June 13 issue of the Financial Times, a once esteemed and unbiased paper, was headlined: “Kim judged clear winner even before ink dries on Trump deal.” The article quoted six “experts,” none of whom had anything positive to say. They claimed Mr. Trump had made “big concessions,” which included a “security guaranty,” but they didn’t say which ones and from whom. The only concession was the announcement that the U.S. would halt joint military exercises with South Korea – something that could be re-started in a matter of months, as our troop level in South Korea is to remain the same. No mention was made that sanctions, which includes ones from China, would remain in place, sanctions that drove Mr. Kim to the bargaining table. No mention was made of Mr. Trump’s own skepticism, embodied in his observation, “we’ll see.” With expectations so low victory may be possible.
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Important for the preservation of the separation of powers was the announced resignation of Supreme Court Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy. His doing so provides Mr. Trump the opportunity to appoint another individual who will help put the Constitution above politics. An overblown, hyped story was one of children being separated from their parents at our southern border, a subject addressed in a TOTD on June 20. I use the word “overblown” because such separations, while never desirable, are nothing new and have been used by Presidents since at least the mid 1990s. The difference is that Mr. Trump was vocal in issuing a “zero tolerance” order regarding illegal crossings. Other Presidents have hidden such draconian actions behind deceptive, sweet-smelling words of inclusion. Until the border is secured, the problem of illegal crossings will persist. One recommendation worth pursuing was made by Victor Davis Hanson of the Hoover Institute at Stamford: Illegals and their families could be housed temporarily in under-used college and university housing during summer months. College dorms are better decorated, beds more comfortable and meals tastier and more nutritious than those found on Army bases. Besides, it would provide elites a chance to get to know people they know now only as symbols and see only at a distance.
The U.S. withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council, which has become a platform for authoritarian countries, like Cuba, Rwanda and Venezuela. It has little to do with human rights. The Group of 7 met in Quebec City and ended with school-yard taunts in which all leaders looked ridiculous, especially the six who decided not to accept Mr. Trump’s recommendation that all tariffs be abandoned. In Colombia, the pro-business candidate Iván Duque Márquez beat former guerilla Gustavo Petro for the Presidency. Italy’s new coalition government will be comprised of the right-wing League, which won 37% of the vote and the left-wing Five-Star Movement, which won 32%. Spain unveiled a new government led by Socialist Pedro Sánchez but could be short-lived as his party has only a quarter of the seats in Parliament. He introduced his “pro-gender-equality, cross-generational” cabinet, which hopefully includes the best and the brightest. Mexico’s election will be held today, July 1. It is widely expected that the left-leaning anti-American Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) will win. President Trump announced he would meet with Vladimir Putin on July 15 in Finland. “Remainders” in the UK, taking their cue from “Resistors” in the U.S., blamed Russian interference for Brexit, not free and democratic elections.
Five people were killed when Jarrod Ramos, a man with a grudge against Annapolis’ Capital Gazette, blasted his way into the newsroom, killing five and wounding two. Four Supreme Court decisions will have long-lasting effect. All were 5-4 decisions, indicating the political polarization of a court that should be above politics. In Janus v. AFSCME, the Court decided for the plaintiff – that unions cannot force members to pay for political activities with which the individual disagrees. In South Dakota v. Wayfair, the Court determined that state and local taxes must be collected by on-line sellers, regardless of whether the seller has an operation within the state. In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, the Court ruled that the First Amendment prohibits the State of California from compelling licensed pro-life centers to post information on how to obtain a state-funded abortion. In Trump v. Hawaii, the Court upheld the President’s right to impose a travel ban on those countries he deems a threat to national security. Primaries were held in a number of states. While generalizations are famously inaccurate, Trump-backed Republicans did well, while Democrats swung further left, reminding one of Yeats: “…Things fall apart; the center cannot hold.”
In financial markets, the most noteworthy changes during the second quarter were the rise in short rates, accompanied by a flattening of the yield curve – from 104 basis points to 92; declines in the price of gold and Bitcoins, and rises in oil prices and the U.S. Dollar. The TED spread – the difference between 3-Month Libor and 3-Month US Treasuries – narrowed, indicating less perceived credit risk. Bucking modestly positive stock market trends were the Shanghai Index and the Emerging Market Index, both down about ten percent. For the month, stocks in the U.S. were generally flat – the DJIA closed down 0.006% and the S&P 500 closed up 0.005%. Volatility ebbed. The Federal Reserve, as expected, raised Fed Funds Rates by a quarter point. The Institute for Supply Management released its report for the non-manufacturing sector, which suggested aggregate demand is overtaking aggregate supply, which, could lead to higher prices and stronger wages. The University of Michigan’s measure of consumer sentiment rose to 99.3 in June, from 98.0 in May. Amazon, JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway named Atul Gawande, a prominent surgeon and writer, to become CEO of their joint venture to tackle US-employee healthcare. Trade and tariff wars remained on center stage, affecting market commentators more than markets. Whether they reflect a game of chicken, blind-man’s bluff, or the hard-ball negotiating tactics of the Trump Administration remains to be seen. (I suspect the latter.)
The announcement by Harley Davidson, the iconic American manufacturer of motorcycles, that they would move some production to Thailand caused an uproar, a manifestation of the hyperbole on the part of politicians and the press, and indicative of the political chasm that seems unbridgeable. Both sides exaggerated the planned move. First, the company initially announced the decision in January, to little fanfare. Second, Harley already has manufacturing facilities in Australia, Brazil, India and Thailand. Keep in mind, companies have four constituents: customers, employees, shareholders and communities. To the best of their ability they must satisfy all, which is what Harley Davidson is attempting. Michael Bloomberg said he would spend $80 million on behalf of Democrat candidates in the mid-term elections. Some Amazon employees said they will not be involved in selling face-recognition equipment to law enforcement agencies. (Ironically, it was face recognition technology that led to the identification of Jarrod Ramos in Annapolis.) A team of medical researchers at Mt. Sinai in New York City concluded that certain viruses, including Herpes, affect the behavior of genes involved in Alzheimer’s. The photograph “crying child,” used as a cover on Time Magazine to highlight the Trump Administration’s separation of children from their parents at our southern border, was phony. The child was with her mother. Wildfires in Colorado destroyed over 1000 homes and twenty-six square miles. The morally-challenged Samantha Bee called Ivanka Trump a “c—t”, with Sally Fields seconding the description. Not to be outdone, the verbally-challenged Robert De Niro, at the Tony Awards, twice repeated his call for action: “f—k Trump.” “The Band’s Visit” won the Tony for the best new musical. “Koko,” the gorilla who charmed Mr. Rogers, died at age forty-six. New York City Mayor de Blasio chose to water down admission criteria at the City’s elite public school, swapping intellect for a more representational balance of race and ethnicity. Kathleen Kraninger, of the White House Office of Management and Budget, was nominated to lead the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFBP.) Inexplicably, the FDA decided that “pure” maple syrup must carry the label, “Sugar added.”
New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gave birth to a baby girl, the second elected leader in modern times to give birth while in office. (In 1990, Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto gave birth to a daughter.) Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was returned to office with 97% of the vote, a clear indication his was not a free election. The long-running dispute between Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia looked like it came to an end with the naming of the country just north of Greece as the Republic of North Macedonia, but not all i’s are dotted, or t’s crossed. Spain accepted 629 migrants stranded when Italy’s new government refused them entry. (Over the past four years, Italy, a country of 60 million, has taken in 640,000 migrants.) Pope Francis met with a group of oil company executives to discuss climate change. An earthquake in Guatemala’s left 300 dead or missing. Studies published in the Journal of Science indicated that discoveries by NASA’s “Curiosity Rover” showed traces of Methane on Mars, indicating that life might once have existed there. In a case of political correctness carried too far, Tommy Robinson, a British journalist was jailed for live-streaming activities outside a courthouse in Leeds where some Muslim men were facing trial on charges of child rape and sex trafficking, “grooming” is the euphemism used for such mendacious behavior by the British courts, when it applies to Muslim men.
In sports, the Golden State Warriors won the NBA championship and the Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup. The French Open was won by Simona Halep (Romania) and Rafael Nadal (Spain). “Justify” won the Belmont Stakes, the 13th two-year-old to win the Triple Crown. Brooks Koepka won the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills. Yale beat Harvard in the 153rd Boat Race on the Thames in New London, CT.
The Grim Reaper made his appearance and took away a number of our finest: Gena Turgel, a Holocaust survivor who helped Anne Frank in her final days and who found love with a British soldier-liberator. She died at 95. Ellan Brennan, matriarch of one of the nation’s premier restaurants, Commander’s Palace in New Orleans, died at 92. Poet Laureate and New Hampshire resident Donald Hall died at 89. Sadly, suicide took Kate Spade at 55 and Anthony Bourdain at 61. A neighbor and friend In Essex, Douglas Bennet, who led both NPR and Wesleyan University, died at 79. And my good friend Harold Rubin died of Multiple Myeloma, at age 76.
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Not all the news was dramatic, horrific or just plain bad. Three items during the month suggest a nascent, positive change in higher education: The first was an interview on C-Span with Yale Professor John Lewis Gaddis, author of On Grand Strategy. Professor Gaddis discussed the Yale-sponsored sojourns he requests of his students, to spend time in small towns across the U.S. The idea is to immerse themselves in the world outside the ivied walls within which they are privileged to study. Another example: Salena Zito, a political journalist, was recently invited to teach a class on small-town America at Harvard. The students spend two or three days in towns in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Despite myriad ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds, most students in both colleges came from coastal urban and suburban areas, with similar political viewpoints. The lesson learned is that the wisdom of the people is a far better arbiter of principles of democracy than the dictates of those who have been spent careers in ivory towers. The third item suggesting the possible beginnings of a positive change in higher education was an op-ed in The Wall Street Journalby Emily Esfahani Smith. Ms. Smith is with the Hoover Institute. She wrote of Heterodox Academy, an organization founded in 2015 to promote viewpoint-diversity on campus. The Academy now numbers more than 2000 professors and graduate students in the U.S., and includes such luminaries as Steven Pinker of Harvard, John McWhorter of Columbia and Robert George of Princeton. In 2015, the University of Chicago issued a statement validating the importance of free speech. To date, forty-two colleges, from Columbia to the University of Minnesota, have adopted the Chicago principles. It is true that these examples represent a small fraction of our educational institutions, but, as the saying goes, from little acorns giant Oak trees grow. It is a start.
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June was a month of remembrances. Seventy-eight years ago, on June 4-12, 1940, 338,000 British soldiers were evacuated from Dunkirk, because thousands of civilians risked their lives to save their fellow countrymen. Four years later, on June 6, 1944, a full complement of Allied soldiers returned to the beaches at Normandy; the re-taking of Europe began.
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