Arizona Republicans Brace for a Storm Changing demographics and dismay with Trump give Democrats a chance for governor and Senate.By Allysia Finley
https://www.wsj.com/articles/arizona-republicans-brace-for-a-storm-1533936117
Anyone who’s lived in Arizona is familiar with the summer monsoons that sweep across the desert, bringing a tsunami of sand. The rain can come on suddenly but is usually presaged by hurricane-force gusts carrying dark, thick plumes. Some people say they can sense a storm coming by the electricity in the air.
For Republicans, this year’s midterm elections have that sort of ominous feel. Liberal intensity has been building across the country, fueled by revulsion at Donald Trump. Longtime GOP redoubts are suddenly up for grabs in special elections. Republicans this week appear to have eked out a victory in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, which the GOP had won in 2016 by more than 35 points.
Arizona, the land of Barry Goldwater, has long leaned right. Between 1952 and 2016, Democrats carried the state in only one presidential election, in 1996. Today Republicans control the governorship, both chambers of the Legislature, both U.S. Senate seats and five of nine House seats. But demographic changes are pulling the electorate leftward, even as Mr. Trump is polarizing voters.
Hispanics make up nearly a third of the state’s population and more than 40% in the two biggest cities, Phoenix and Tucson. Mr. Trump carried Arizona by a mere 3.5 points in 2016, compared with Mitt Romney’s 9-point margin in 2012. Many Republicans and independents in the suburbs are repelled by the president’s abrasive personality and restrictionist immigration policies. Caught in the political maelstrom are Gov. Doug Ducey and Rep. Martha McSally.
Ms. McSally is running for the GOP nomination to succeed Sen. Jeff Flake. A second-term congresswoman from Tucson, she would seem to be a GOP dream candidate: a former Air Force fighter pilot who can return liberal fire. Her military background is a major asset in a state with 1,200 aerospace and defense companies. CONTINUE AT SITE
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