The Best Bad Brexit Deal May’s withdrawal pact from the EU is lousy but is the only game in town.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-bad-brexit-deal-1542239961
Theresa May has finally struck a deal with Brussels for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, and it reminds us of what Winston Churchill said about democracy—the worst form of government except for all the others.
Mrs. May sold the plan to her balky cabinet in a five-hour meeting on Wednesday. And if her plan survives vetting in Parliament, the policy outline will manage Britain’s departure from the EU, with a second round of talks on the post-Brexit trading relationship to come.
Most details aren’t controversial. Those include provisions on the status of EU citizens in Britain and Brits living in the EU, and the money Britain will contribute to the EU budget under commitments made before the 2016 Brexit referendum.
The rub concerns the indefinite trading agreement that Brussels demanded to avoid imposing a hard border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and the Republic of Ireland that is remaining in the EU. Mrs. May has agreed that the entire U.K. will remain within the EU customs union if some other U.K.-EU trade deal isn’t struck. Britain will accept some EU regulations, and economic rules still could diverge over time between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K.
Pro-Brexit Tories are right to call this a bad deal—“vassal state stuff,” in the words of the always colorful Brexiteer Boris Johnson. It limits Britain’s ability to negotiate its own trade deals unless Britain can first negotiate a new trading arrangement with Brussels.
But it’s the best, and currently the only, serious option on the table. Reimposing a hard border for Northern Ireland, which would be necessary without a withdrawal deal, would renege on Britain’s commitments under the Good Friday peace agreement of 1998 and risk re-igniting sectarian strife. Britain also has refused to accept a Brussels proposal to create a new customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K., though this would make the most economic sense.
If Tory Brexiteers have a better idea to solve the Irish problem, it’s the best-kept secret in Britain. Some Conservatives are nonetheless threatening another leadership challenge to Mrs. May, and maybe this time they mean it. The Prime Minister’s withdrawal plan at least clarifies the choice.
Mrs. May has reached this pass because she and much of her party have lacked the conviction to push for a Brexit that would require widespread economic reform at home and a Singapore-style free-trade policy abroad. If Britain won’t have that kind of Brexit, business groups are right that the country needs to preserve as many of the benefits of existing EU ties as possible to compensate for the disadvantages of Britain’s high-taxing, high-spending, hyper-regulated economy.
Mrs. May might be right about what British voters will tolerate, given that the big winner in last year’s election was a Labour Party led by an unreconstructed socialist. Any Tory inclined to challenge Mrs. May will need a plan for persuading skeptical British voters to follow a reform path.
If Mr. Johnson or other Tories are serious, then they could try to defeat Mrs. May’s plan and deal with consequences that probably include a hard Brexit without a deal and an election that could lead to a Labour victory. The best of the bad options now is to accept Mrs. May’s plan, warts and all, and then focus on negotiating a better permanent free-trade relationship with Brussels and better economic policies at home.
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