Voters Rebel in Europe’s Big Three Western political systems are under strain despite good economic times. By Walter Russell Mead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-rebel-in-europes-big-three-1544486166
The past week has seen the leaders of the three most important European states fighting for their political lives. In London, Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to hold power as opinion in Parliament moves against her Brexit agreement. In Paris, a firestorm of public rage has humbled President Emmanuel Macron and forced him into an undignified retreat before street protests he previously vowed to ignore. Even Berlin experienced its share of political drama as Chancellor Angela Merkel officially stepped down under pressure as leader of the Christian Democratic Union. Her preferred successor was able to eke out only a narrow win over anti-Merkel challengers.
The turbulence in these countries, pillars of European and indeed world order, isn’t just about particular leaders. Their entire political systems have come under strain. In the U.K., even before the Brexit referendum, the rise of the Scottish National Party and Jeremy Corbyn’s victory over the moderate wing of the Labour Party had already transformed the political system. In France, Mr. Macron came to power as the existing party system imploded. In Germany, the antiestablishment Left and Alternative for Germany parties have been steadily gaining strength as centrist parties falter in the polls.
It’s one thing for political systems to face populist revolts when times are bad. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil came on the heels of a deep recession and a massive corruption scandal. Voters turned against a political establishment that was corrupt and economically inept. Italy’s populists came to power in a country where, a decade after the financial crisis, gross domestic product has not yet returned to 2008 levels. Persistent crime and poverty helped elevate a left-wing populist to the presidency in Mexico.
But that is not what is happening in Europe’s Big Three. The German economy under Ms. Merkel is the envy of much of the world. Britain’s economy has also done relatively well, with unemployment low and declining despite uncertainty from Brexit. And while growth in France is slow, it is real; average wages as reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development rose more than 1% a year between 2007 and 2017. Any material grievances voters may have are not extreme by historical standards.
The discontent shaking Europe’s governments, and the anger reverberating through American politics, comes as times are about as good as they get. The crash of 2008 and the Great Recession are far behind us, and most countries are at the peak of their business cycles. Conventional political science suggests this should be a better environment for incumbent politicians. People normally get cranky when the economy is doing badly but mellow out as things improve. Now a long period of steady if not exceptional growth is in the rearview mirror, but voters are in revolt across much of the West.
There are plenty of good explanations for voter anger. French taxes are high. Prosperity hasn’t significantly lifted some regions, like rural France, Northern England and parts of eastern Germany. Often, voters’ perceived grievances have to do with cultural and class issues: immigration, economic inequality or elite disdain for ordinary people. In the U.S., strong economic numbers didn’t prevent Democrats from scoring a significant victory against the GOP because of widespread discomfort with President Trump’s rhetorical excesses, his controversial policy choices, and the multiple investigations surrounding his administration.
The real question is what happens to Western politics when the economy next heads south. Times won’t always be this good, and the next recession will test the resilience of advanced political systems.
If the German center takes a beating when unemployment is under 4%, what will happen if it goes back to 6% or 8%? If there are riots in the streets of Paris as national wages rise, what will happen when they start to fall? If Britain is this divided with a strong economy, what happens when—Brexit or no Brexit—the next downturn comes? And, for that matter, what happens in American politics if the Trump boom turns into a bust? “For if they do these things in the green tree,” Jesus said in the Gospel of Luke, “what shall be done in the dry?”
We may get answers to these questions sooner than we would like. Between trade friction, stock-market volatility and a flattening yield curve, there are signs that the current expansion, already long by historical standards, isn’t immortal. We must hope that when the good economic times yield to another recession, the West’s political leadership will have the imagination and fortitude to weather the storm.
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