Venezuela swears in an illegitimate president Maduro’s second term could be a tipping point to transition
https://www.ft.com/content/401e52a0-1405-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9
When Nicolás Maduro was sworn in by Venezuela’s Supreme Court for a second six-year term as president on Thursday, a notable judge was missing. Christian Zerpa, a one-time Maduro ally, recently fled the country. Interviewed this week in Florida, the former Supreme Court justice called Mr Maduro’s government “disastrous” and, more importantly, “illegitimate”. It was a crucial legal point. By the end of this week, the US, Canada, and most European and Latin American countries will not recognise Mr Maduro’s presidency as legitimate either.
Venezuela is in social, economic and political freefall. Its institutions have been suborned by Mr Maduro and his inner circle. The legal basis of his second presidential term is the elections in May last year, which most of the world, although not Russia, China or Turkey, declared to be fraudulent. As a result, so too is his presidency. To put the situation baldly: if Mr Maduro were removed from power next week, many international powers would not treat it as a coup as they never recognised the presidency in the first place. Mr Maduro’s swearing-in for a second term therefore marks a tipping point for the country. Greater international isolation is a given. Although military intervention has been all but ruled out, South American attitudes are hardening, especially in neighbouring Brazil under its rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro.
An escalation of sanctions on Venezuelan officials deemed guilty of corruption and human rights abuses is likely. Also possible, if more extreme, is a ban by the Trump administration on US companies selling the dilutants and other chemicals that Venezuela needs to blend with its otherwise unmarketable heavy crude. If that happened, and the country could not find substitutes elsewhere, around 300,000 barrels a day, or one-quarter of current production, would be affected.
That would be a major financial blow, with undeniable social consequences. It would reduce the financial aid that Venezuela can provide to Cuba in return for military intelligence. It would also underline the costs to the Venezuelan military of their support for the regime. Mr Maduro has managed to co-opt the generals through patronage and state-sanctioned corruption. That will become harder as the economy inevitably worsens, with or without sanctions. The international illegitimacy of his presidency will also rob the military of the constitutionality they have hidden behind to justify their support. A Zimbabwe-style transition, led by a palace coup, is possible. Whatever happens next, the role of the opposition-controlled National Assembly is key.
It is the sole political institution recognised as legitimate by most of the international community. To make it truly effective, though, and a central actor in any transition, the fragmented and disorganised opposition needs to unify. A united opposition, supported internationally, should work towards negotiations with government
representatives — and be prepared to make compromises and share power until free elections. A safe exit and exile for key officials, though distasteful, will be needed. Similar hopes of a peaceful transition have often been voiced. Each time Mr Maduro has simply dug in, and repressed. But Venezuela today — ravaged by hyperinflation, and suffering from a humanitarian crisis plus a refugee exodus of biblical proportions — is more fragile than ever. Mr Maduro may survive as a truly authoritarian dictator, for a while. But all unsustainable situations end, eventually. So too will Mr Maduro’s rule.
Comments are closed.
