Donald Trump might be just the man to topple President Maduro and save Venezuela Fraser Nelson
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/24/donald-trump-might-just-man-topple-president-maduro-save-venezuela/
The collapse of Venezuela is one of the greatest human tragedies of our time, all the worse because every part of it was avoidable. Gang violence is now such that, by some estimates, a child is killed there every eight hours. Add the adults, and it’s a violent death every 25 minutes. Mothers sit on rubbish heaps scavenging for food, prices double every month, thousands flee every day. Not so long ago, this was the wealthiest country in Latin America. Most Venezuelans now live on standards comparable to those of Bangladesh or Congo. The rest of the world can only look on in horror.
Donald Trump may not be the most obvious solution to all this, but his actions on Venezuela this week have been decisive, subtle and effective. The problem is Nicolas Maduro, who has taken the radical socialist policies of his mentor, Hugo Chavez, to their destructive conclusion. The nationalisations (at the time hailed as a model by Jeremy Corbyn) led to economic chaos and hyperinflation. Maduro has now rigged elections and violated the constitution, but for the first time he now faces a united and energetic opposition led by Juan Guaidó, whom Trump has just recognised as the “interim” president of Venezuela.
Within an hour of Trump’s announcement, Guaidó was also recognised by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Colombia, Guatemala, Paraguay and Peru. In Caracas, thousands of protesters gathered to cheer Guaidó on during a mock swearing-in ceremony. A democratic movement to displace Maduro is now underway, with backing across Latin America and Trump offering co-ordination and support. His strategy is to do what he can to bolster Juan Guaidó, the 35-year-old leader of the Venezuela National Assembly, and encourage change to come from within.
Trump started off with sanctions against Venezuela, but has realised that they won’t achieve much – with Maduro using them to blame America for everything that’s going wrong. Intensifying sanctions would only serve to deepen the agony of people who are already dying for want of basic medicines. Asking a third country to mediate (as Norway once did in Colombia) won’t work either. The Vatican tried to play honest broker in Caracas, but gave up once everyone realised that Maduro was playing for time.
So Trump is now leading from behind, working with a coalition but realising others need to take the lead. Colombia and Brazil don’t need encouraging, given that both are inundated with refugees and drugs flooding in from the neighbouring narco-state. Trump offers co-ordination, where needed, and says American muscle (and money) is there, with $100 million to help refugees. His officials are working with Marco Rubio, a Florida senator, on a plan to flood Venezuela with aid if Maduro does go.
Theresa May’s government has been rather hesitant to join in which is surprising, even on a cynical level. Jeremy Corbyn was one of the few politicians in Europe to offer public support for Maduro, and even telephoned to congratulate him on his election, talking (in Spanish) about the “fight against capitalism” and their joint love of Bennite policies. This is why the Venezuelan tragedy is so relevant to Britain: it shows what can happen when the type of policies that Corbyn admires are actually applied. It’s a reminder that there is nothing historic about the danger of socialism.
It is now impossible for Maduro to claim any popular mandate. He was returned to power in May last year only after an idiotic decision by his opponents to boycott the election. He holds power now only because he bought off the military by handing senior officers control of the oil industry. Even this tactic might not last, especially when soldiers are going as hungry as everyone else.
Juan Guaidó is not seen as an American stooge, given that he’s recognised as president by so many governments. Trump’s endorsement is not toxic in a country where so many are preoccupied with basic survival. Mike Pence, the US vice president, on Tuesday released a video offering America’s “unwavering support” and urged an uprising against the “dictator” Maduro. He quoted Simón Bolívar, the father of Venezuela, to the effect that a freedom-loving people will always be free in the end.
As for Trump, he isn’t playing the man of peace. It’s not his style. He has been riling opponents at home by refusing to rule out military action, saying that “all options” are on the table. But he’s not a great one for nation-building, and he doesn’t need to be. The US role is to do what it can to encourage allies to provide a Latin American solution to a Latin American problem.
The next steps are tactical. The US can pull strings to make it clear that things will get better in Venezuela after Maduro goes: not just the lifting of sanctions, but perhaps a US-inspired bailout by the International Monetary Fund. While Venezuela does have oil, it lacks oil experts – they have left the country, along with anyone else who could. If American expertise is needed to revive the industry, then Trump will have to avoid the temptation to demand any kind of price.
Reconstruction will be the hard part. There is no formula for successful Latin American nation-building. There’s a cycle: populists bring economic disaster. A right-winger comes along to restore order but also brings inequality. This leads to populism and the game starts again. It’s tempting for America not to engage, to just build a wall and not care what happens on the other side of it. Trump does want the wall, but he is seeking to help. His problem with the Mexican border has its roots in Latin America’s poverty cycle. Whatever his predecessors did to seek to break that cycle did not work; new thinking is needed.
Trump’s policy now – standing behind not just Venezuela’s neighbours but its elected parliament and democratic process – is the best chance out of this mess. He is letting Maduro’s critics (especially in the army) know that now is the time to be bold, and that the US stands ready.
Can he be trusted? Would his attention span last? It’s depressingly hard to say. But his offer might be the best the Venezuelans get.
Comments are closed.
