Venezuela on the Edge of a Precipice Will dictator Maduro survive against his most determined opposition yet? Joseph Klein
https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/272672/venezuela-edge-precipice-joseph-klein
Venezuela, an oil-rich country that was once amongst the most prosperous countries in the Latin American region, is now in a state of economic and political chaos. Venezuela’s socialist leaders – first, Hugo Chávez and then his successor, Nicolas Maduro – have turned the country into an economic basket case because of their gross mismanagement, corruption and destructive economic policies. The inflation rate could reach an unheard of 10 million percent in 2019. There is a humanitarian crisis of monumental proportions, with the country’s population suffering from severe hunger and a health crisis. Millions of Venezuelans have fled the country. Amidst all this chaos, Maduro was sworn in as president for a second term two weeks ago following an “election” last year that many inside and outside of the country believe was rigged.
Many Venezuelans have had enough of Maduro’s dictatorship. As a result, he is now being forced to square off with a potentially formidable opposition leader who is popular with the Venezuelan people and is gaining international support. Juan Guaido, the new leader of the democratically elected opposition-controlled National Assembly, has declared himself to be the interim president until new national elections can be held.
Mr. Guaido claims that he is acting under the authority of the country’s constitution. Tens of thousands of protesters have rallied in the streets on his behalf. The Trump administration officially recognized Mr. Guaido as the legitimate interim president. President Trump tweeted on Wednesday the following expression of support: “The citizens of Venezuela have suffered for too long at the hands of the illegitimate Maduro regime. Today, I have officially recognized the President of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaido, as the Interim President of Venezuela.” The Trump administration made it clear that all options remain on the table if Maduro clamps down too hard on the opposition.
In response, Maduro ordered the expulsion of U.S. diplomats from Venezuela and defiantly declared that “I am the only president of Venezuela.” He added, “We do not want to return to the 20th century of gringo interventions and coups d’état.” Venezuela’s military and security forces have shown no signs yet of defecting to the opposition. There has been some violence in the streets, leading to at least seven deaths this week, but no widespread harsh crackdown with lethal weapons so far.
The United States is not alone in recognizing Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president. Canada has also done so. To date, within the Latin American region, Brazil, Paraguay, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Honduras have also supported Mr. Guaido as interim president. Organization of American States president Luis Almagro tweeted Wednesday his support for Mr. Guaido.
The European Union has only gone as far as calling for “free and credible elections” rather than officially recognizing Mr. Guaido as the president during a transition period leading up to such elections. The United Kingdom did not quite give its official recognition to the opposition leader as Venezuela’s interim president. However, the UK’s foreign secretary did almost as much when he called Mr. Guaido the “the right person” to take the country forward and said that Maduro is not the “legitimate” leader of Venezuela. Germany is backing Venezuela’s opposition-led National Assembly that was dissolved by the Maduro regime last year. The Republic of Georgia has outright declared its support for Mr. Guaido’s interim presidency.
While Maduro is becoming increasingly isolated internationally, he does still have some friends in Latin America. The governments of Cuba, Bolivia, Mexico, Uruguay, Nicaragua and El Salvador remain unwilling to recognize the legitimacy of any change in Venezuela’s presidency. Cuba’s government issued a declaration on Thursday expressing its “unwavering solidarity with the government of Constitutional President Nicolás Maduro Moros.” Mexico was much more lukewarm, saying that it would stick to its “constitutional principles of non-intervention.”
Mr. Maduro can also revel in the backing he is receiving from the dictators running Iran, Turkey, and Syria. Iran’s leadership, for example, described Mr. Guaido’s move as a “coup.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as telling Maduro: “My brother Maduro! Stay strong, we are by your side.” Syria’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement denouncing U.S. backing of Mr. Guaido as interim president as a “violation of international laws and norms.” A regime that massacres its own people, including with chemical weapons, is in no position to lecture anyone about “international laws and norms.”
Russia is another notable Maduro backer. A Russian government spokesperson claimed that Mr. Maduro remained Venezuela’s legitimate leader and dismissed Mr. Guaido’s announcement as an “attempt to usurp power.” Russia is a major trading partner with the Maduro regime. Russia flexed its military muscles last year when it sent two nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela, and has warned the Trump administration against any military intervention in Venezuela’s affairs. China too remains supportive of Maduro, wary of endangering its economic stake in the country.
The United States has requested a closed meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Saturday morning to discuss the Venezuelan crisis. Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia has already expressed his belief that no such meeting is necessary. A procedural vote may be required to hold the meeting over any Security Council member objections, which would need at least nine affirmative votes for the meeting to proceed.
For his part, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated blandly: “It is absolutely essential to have dialogue, to avoid violence and to avoid escalation.” A further statement issued in his name contained an equally bland call “for all relevant actors to commit to inclusive and credible political dialogue to address the protracted crisis in the country, with full respect for the rule of law and human rights.”
Secretary General Guterres has often spoken about the UN’s central role in fostering multilateral solutions to difficult problems. No doubt, the United Nations is the largest multilateral institution in the world since its membership spans the globe. However, statements like the ones the Secretary General made regarding the current crisis in Venezuela illustrate the UN’s significant limitations when addressing the misdeeds of dictators who have the backing of strategically important countries. In too many instances, the UN’s large number of autocratic member states hobble the world organization from doing or saying anything with moral clarity. Dictators have each other’s back as they manipulate the processes of the UN to protect themselves from any real action against their human rights abuses. Just look at the membership of the UN Human Rights Council. One of its members is the Maduro regime’s chief supporter – Cuba.
Maduro will not engage in any “inclusive and credible political dialogue” with the opposition as Secretary General Guterres has urged. Maduro certainly does not care about what comes out of the UN, knowing that Russia and possibly China will block any serious Security Council actions against his regime. Maduro has already endured economic sanctions and can probably weather even more stringent sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies as long as Russia and China continue providing him with economic lifelines. He could care less about popular opinion or street protests so long as his military and security forces continue to stand by him. The military declared its firm backing for Maduro on Thursday. For Maduro, it is all about holding onto his power at any cost.
Massive protests alone are unlikely to oust Maduro unless the military and security forces do an about face and decide to stand down or join the revolt. With pervasive intelligence units embedded in the military overseen by Cuban intelligence advisers, however, an outright military revolt is unlikely to succeed. One such attempt was put down on Monday. President Trump has not ruled out the military option. However, direct military intervention could well lead to further friction with Russia and to potentially disastrous unintended consequences.
As if we needed any reminding, Venezuela’s descent from prosperity to abject poverty under two socialist leaders demonstrates that socialism is a sure path to economic ruin and political oppression. We can only hope that the Venezuelan people are finally able to escape their long nightmare.
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