China’s Rise Means Trouble in Paradise Fiji and other tiny South Pacific states will be flashpoints of global competition.By Walter Russell Mead

Posted By on March 19th, 2019

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-rise-means-trouble-in-paradise-11552950243

Viti Levu, Fiji

On a recent visit to Fiji I was able to confirm that the majestic islands of the South Pacific remain as close to paradise as one can get in this world. But alongside the sparkling crystal waters and coral gardens, I saw something darker at work in the region.

As U.S.-China competition intensifies, the thinly settled islands scattered across Oceania will become geopolitical flashpoints. The contest has already begun to impose strains on fragile societies. These strains will intensify as strategists in Washington, Beijing and Canberra seek to further influence political developments in tiny, almost inaccessible island-states.

U.S. interests in the South Pacific run deep. The American naval presence in the region, originally dispatched to protect U.S. whalers, is 200 years old. American statesmen have long believed that the country’s security depends on U.S. power in the Pacific. President John Tyler extended the Monroe Doctrine to Hawaii in 1842; a century later the importance of the region was driven home by the brutal island warfare of World War II. Even in an era when many Americans want to limit the nation’s overseas commitments, voters and Washington strategists alike will remain focused on maintaining security and stability in the South Pacific.

For many years, the main diplomatic drama in the region revolved around the bidding war between Taipei and Beijing for diplomatic recognition. In exchange for aid packages, island-states would agree to recognize either Taiwan or the mainland. For small states without many goods to sell, diplomatic recognition turned out to be good business. Of the 17 countries world-wide that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, six are in the South or Central Pacific.

More recently, Beijing has intensified its courtship of Pacific island-states. Large investments and aid packages for countries like Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Fiji have alarmed Australia and New Zealand; additionally, China dangles the prospect of massive infrastructure aid for countries willing to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative. Tonga’s indebtedness to China amounts to nearly one-third of its GDP.

Some in the region welcome China’s new activism. A bidding war between Western nations and Beijing over sea lanes and naval bases, they reason, will be more lucrative than a mere contest over diplomatic prestige between Beijing and Taipei. Outsiders might be tempted to sneer at the venality of countries looking at geopolitics in this way, but the Pacific island nations cannot afford many scruples.

Fiji, for example, has a population of 926,000 citizens and a GDP of $4.9 billion according to the latest CIA World Factbook estimate. Yet it must provide infrastructure and basic services to 110 inhabited islands while monitoring a maritime territory that includes more than 200 uninhabited islands scattered across 486,000 square miles of sea. Kiribati, an archipelago north of Fiji, has a population of 109,000 distributed across an expanse of ocean twice the size of Alaska with a GDP of $197 million.

Good jobs on the islands are often hard to find. Young Pacific islanders who gain university education are often drawn to the bright lights of Sydney and Auckland, New Zealand. With little or no manufacturing capacity, the islands must import goods, from fuel to textiles and pharmaceuticals—usually at high cost, due to their distance from industrial centers. In these circumstances, the islands have every incentive to leverage their geographical position for financial and diplomatic advantage.

The priority in the U.S. and allied nations (including France and Britain, which still control territories in the region) must be to draw these countries into a stable and deepening relationship with the West while reducing the risk of crises and confrontations with China.

This will not always be easy. Economic development in countries like Papua New Guinea hinges on the exploitation of mineral resources. Papua New Guinea was ruled by Australia until 1975, but China’s role as a major export destination ensures that it will have a close relationship with Beijing. China’s willingness to finance the construction of ports and rail infrastructure makes that relationship likely to grow closer still.

Protecting U.S. interests in the South Pacific is neither the most difficult nor the most expensive task confronting American policymakers in a newly competitive world. But success will send an important signal to Beijing and beyond about Washington’s ability to respond effectively to the wider geopolitical consequences of China’s rise.

Failure will also be noted, and will come with a price.

 

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