Boris Johnson’s Iran Test Will he stand up to Tehran’s aggression or follow Europe’s lead?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boris-johnsons-iran-test-11563741151
Boris Johnson is expected to become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom this week with a mandate to deliver Brexit. But before he can even say Brussels, the new leader will confront an international crisis started by Iran. This is an opportunity for Mr. Johnson to display independence and strength while nudging Europe toward a new approach to the Islamic Republic.
On Friday Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized a British-flagged oil tanker and its 23 crew members in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians claimed to board the ship for “security reasons” but this was clearly retaliation.
The British recently impounded an Iranian tanker off the coast of Gibraltar because the ship was suspected of bringing oil to Syria in violation of European Union sanctions. The Brits have offered to release the ship as long as it won’t go to Syria, but Iran refuses anything but an unconditional release.
“Unlike the piracy in the Strait of Gibraltar, our action in the Persian Gulf is to uphold int’l maritime rules,” Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted on Saturday. “UK must cease being an accessory to #EconomicTerrorism of the US.” Mr. Zarif is trolling, but his reaction suggests the Trump Administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against the regime is working.
President Trump left the nuclear Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action last year not to start a war but to build leverage for new negotiations. Mr. Zarif outmaneuvered John Kerry and got a sweetheart deal in 2015 that allowed the regime to regain its economic strength while temporarily putting its nuclear ambitions on hold. Rather than address Iran’s malign regional behavior, the agreement left Tehran with more cash to finance terrorism and other aggression.
The Trump Administration revived previous sanctions and imposed some new ones. The United Kingdom, France and Germany have been clinging to the old deal even as Iran openly violates it and as Europe’s attempts to circumvent U.S. sanctions fail. Now a weak economy has Tehran feeling political pressure at home, and it’s acting out to test Mr. Trump’s resolve and improve its bargaining position.
Last week Mr. Zarif offered more stringent nuclear inspections in return for the lifting of sanctions. This wasn’t a serious offer, but it shows that the regime thinks that it can’t necessarily wait out the Trump Administration. Neither side wants a war, and they’re waiting for the other to blink on negotiations.
The United Kingdom doesn’t have to respond militarily to Iran’s latest provocation. Mr. Johnson could simply announce that the U.K. is joining America’s maximum-pressure campaign and calls for a new deal. The rest of Europe would likely have no choice but to join its Anglophone partners—and finally present a united front toward the Middle East’s most dangerous nation.
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