House finally will vote on an impeachment inquiry, but who will that help? Andrew McCarthy
Informed commentators do not contend that Democrats lack the raw power to conduct their inquiry. The six standing committees involved in the inquiry have legitimate oversight authority over intelligence matters, foreign relations, the Justice Department, etc. Even if there were no impeachment inquiry, they could demand testimony and documents pursuant to that oversight authority. The game here is that they have labeled those demands an “impeachment inquiry,” and they are using the information gathered to consider potential articles of impeachment, but they are taking pains to spare their members — particularly Democrats who hold seats in Trump-friendly districts — the need to cast an accountable vote that might hurt them in the 2020 election.
The problem with this legerdemain is that impeachment is a political, not a legal, matter. Democrats may have the raw power to conduct an inquiry without taking a vote, but that does not mean the public will see their investigation as legitimate. Unless Americans are convinced that the inquiry has been conducted fairly and properly, the articles of impeachment that Democrats are hell-bent on lodging against President Trump will be seen as a 2020 campaign stunt.
That is Pelosi’s fear. She still does not want to make the Trump-district Democrats cast difficult votes. There are more than 40 such lawmakers. If voters in their districts are angered by the impeachment push, it could cost Democrats control of the House.
On the other hand, the public grows suspicious about why Democrats are avoiding a vote. If, as Democrats insist, the president has committed egregious misconduct, they should be proud to vote “yea” on an inquiry. Add to this the Democrats’ choice to proceed behind closed doors, and to withhold witness transcripts while leaking selective portions to their anti-Trump media friends. The process oozes political calculation, not good faith.
So now, for all the chest-beating about how no vote is legally necessary, Democrats have resigned themselves to its political necessity.
If Democrats really do have a viable impeachment case, endorsing the inquiry by a vote of the full House can only help them — at least if it is accompanied by guarantees of transparency and due process: public hearings, disclosure of the transcripts of interviews done in secret, an opportunity for the president’s counsel to cross-examine witnesses and present his own evidence.
Naturally, if the Democrats’ impeachment case is thin, sunlight will not help it. The president’s allies are thus cheering a vote that will put Democrats on record. But it’s a two-edged sword.
Pelosi would not hold a vote if the Democrats’ tactics had not had the intended effect of moving public opinion in their direction. According to the Real Clear Politics national average, Americans now favor an impeachment inquiry by a comfortable margin of 51 percent to 42 percent — and, ominously for the president, the number favoring removal from office is increasing, even among independents(RCP average: plus 2.5 percent in favor). Speaker Pelosi figures that, at this point, a vote to endorse the inquiry will not damage too many Democrats’ electoral prospects, even though the polls are still hostile to the inquiry in pro-Trump districts.
In addition, President Trump and his allies have relied on the House’s failure to vote as a justification for the administration’s refusal to cooperate with the inquiry. If the House now votes to endorse the inquiry, the pressure will be on the White House to produce the information demanded. If the president fails to comply, the Democrats will look more justified in adding an article of impeachment that accuses the president of obstructing the House.
It only takes one such article to impeach and remove a president. It is highly unlikely that 20 Republican senators will ever join the Democrats to form the two-thirds’ Senate supermajority that the Constitution requires for removal. Yet, while Republican senators generally do not believe any presidential missteps on Ukraine are serious enough to warrant removal, they might feel differently if the White House obstructs the House after a floor vote has legitimized the impeachment inquiry.
Former federal prosecutor Andrew C. McCarthy is a senior fellow at National Review Institute, a contributing editor at National Review, and a Fox News contributor. His latest book is “Ball of Collusion.” Follow him on Twitter@AndrewCMcCarthy.
Comments are closed.