Immune from slogans The Left’s insistence on focusing on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s indictments only proves that it has little to offer voters on its own merits.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2020/01/03/immune-from-slogans/
The prime minister deliberated quite a bit on the matter of immunity. Unlike previous chapters in the saga of his investigations, where he knew how to prepare the groundwork, the current development caught him almost entirely unprepared. He had a short deadline and his political rivals are waiting around the corner. While he was able to shrug off the police’s recommendation to indict him with a quick press conference in which he mocked the cops (“So there will be recommendations, so what?”) this time, the game is different.
It’s not only a legal matter, but also – even mainly – a political one. The fact that he failed to win two elections and was twice unable to put together a governing coalition has cracked his self-confidence. Benjamin Netanyahu is facing an election, and it looks like for the first time, he doesn’t know what approach to take. How can he overcome the polls and the previous two election results and bring the right-wing bloc the 61 seats it needs? The decision to request immunity from prosecution was another Hail Mary pass in the shaky morass of uncertainty in which he is sinking.
This week, Blue and White played up the matter of immunity for Netanyahu, hoping it could continue to make headlines for several weeks more of the campaign, although the issue in and of itself is quite esoteric. The world didn’t shake when Labor and Social Affairs Minister Haim Katz asked for immunity. Temporary immunity cannot rescue a suspect from a trial – it can only pause the process for as long as he or she remains in office. Benny Gantz’s accusations against Netanyahu were to be expected, but if the latter hadn’t asked for immunity and announced that as far as he was concerned, the trial could proceed immediately, Gantz would have attacked him even more strongly for running the cabinet in the evening hours and spending his mornings in court.
The opposition, which has the support of major and key sectors of the media, is finding it difficult to understand how after the investigations, the police recommendations, the state attorney’s recommendations, and the decision of the attorney general to indict pending a hearing and his final decision to indict, Netanyahu is still on his feet. How he is still supported by half the people who are refusing to let him go despite everything, and how he is using his voter base to keep the other side out of power. It’s making them crazy. Because more than anything, it points to them. It’s one thing to fail in two elections in a row, but to fail against an opponent who is suspected of serious crimes – what does that say about them and their political paths?
Their aggressive campaign against Netanyahu, now in its third election cycle, rests on their own assumption that he cannot be defeated at the polls and therefore the only way of ousting him goes through the attorney general, the state attorney, and the High Court. What was Gantz’s speech rejecting immunity for Netanyahu actually about, if not a clear message that he cannot bring down Netanyahu on his own? It said that Gantz, for the third time, will need outside help from the court. If he believed in his own strength, he would say, let Netanyahu be given immunity and that their contest would be decided where democratic decisions are made – at the ballot box.
It takes some serious pyrotechnics to turn Netanyahu’s request for immunity into a major event. At this stage, everyone who is with Netanyahu will stick with him. Anyone who was going to leave has already gotten off the bus. Blue and White can’t directly take advantage of the event for political gain, but taking over the discourse is an easier target. Slogans such as “turning the Knesset into a haven for criminals,” or “Netanyahu only cares about Netanyahu” – as well as the term “immunity government” – are catchy and will register with the media, which throws itself behind anti-Likud campaigns.
When it comes to the attorney general and the High Court’s position on the legality of appointing Netanyahu to form a government, it’s hard not to notice their extreme disinclination to address the matter. It would seem that the system has never had to deal with more volatile material than the question of whether Netanyahu can or cannot run for prime minister. This was particularly clear when they treated a High Court petition against Netanyahu like an IED – something from which to run and seek cover.
It’s hard for them to reject the petition. An entire camp, their own camp, is waiting to hear their verdict about the quickest way to avoid having to compete against Netanyahu again. But it’s also difficult for them to accept it. There is no legal reason for them to do so. So they stammer noncommittal things about “it’s too early” and “maybe a miracle will happen and Netanyahu will lose on his own,” which would relieve them of the burden of having to make a decision.
A waiting game
Like all the election campaigns for the past decade, things are a mess on the Right. Two weeks ago, Rabbi Rafi Peretz and far-right activist Itamar Ben-Gvir surprised Transportation Minister Bezalel Smotrich and announced that Peretz’s Habayit Hayehudi and Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit would be running on a joint ticket. The deal has reserved places for members of Smotrich’s Tkuma party on its list, including Smotrich himself, but as of now, the transportation minister is refusing to carpool.
There are different versions of what prompted the move. Smotrich’s people say that it was motivated solely to allow wider competition because it appeared that a single united party wouldn’t pass the minimum electoral threshold.
Smotrich also had the idea of uniting the central committees of each party – 800 from Habayit Hayehudi, 400 from Tkuma – and hold a single vote to determine the list. But that idea was a “no” for Peretz. Some say that the partnership between Habayit Hayehudi and Otzma Yehudit is designed to torpedo an attempt to hold party primaries or any other move that would oust Peretz from the leadership of Habayit Heyehudi. The other version of events holds that it was actually Smotrich who is responsible for the joint list. When it became clear to Peretz and Ben-Gvir that Smotrich was taking aim at both their parties, they decided to join forces behind his back. They think Smotrich has no political ammunition. Naftali Bennett doesn’t want him in the New Right, although Ayelet Shaked does. Netanyahu won’t take him into the Likud, so the only option for Peretz and Ben-Gvir was to unite or disappear. They think Smotrich will have no choice but to take the bait and join their list.
At this point, Smotrich can’t say with certainty that that is what will happen, so he is waiting to see what happens in the next two weeks, leading up to the deadline for parties to submit their lists to the Central Elections Committee.
A day before the deadline, Habayit Hayehudi’s central committee is scheduled to meet to approve the joint ticket. It will pass with a large majority; a similar one was already approved before the April 9 election, but that isn’t stopping the party wheelers and dealers from trying to scupper the decision. But joint tickets and mergers are the only way to keep right-wing votes from being lost to fringe parties that can’t make it over the minimum electoral threshold.
At a time when the right-wing camp is fighting for its life, it’s astonishing to see how the politicians are still dealing with nuances. People think Smotrich will wind up joining the right-wing list, but if he doesn’t, Habayit Hayehudi and Otzma Yehudit have one last option ready – putting a woman in the No. 2 place on their joint list, someone from one of the more liberal religious Zionist communities, like Raanana or Givat Shmuel. Or maybe Eli Yishai, formerly of Shas. The last time around, Otzma Yehudit didn’t make it into the Knesset. Perhaps now that they’ve joined forces with Habayit Hayehudi, the situation will change.
Comments are closed.
