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March 2020

Coronavirus Modeling Had Faulty Assumptions, the Real Data Gives Us Hope By Richard Fernandez

https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/oxford-and-imperial/

My dear old statistics teacher used to say that relying on any model, however good but founded on past data, was like driving by looking at the rearview mirror; fine as long as the future looked like the past. As governments struggle with their response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the $64 trillion question is “which past does the future look like?”

Science writes how models have become supremely important:

Entire cities and countries have been locked down based on hastily done forecasts that often haven’t been peer reviewed.  … The Netherlands … Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus while making sure the health system isn’t swamped with COVID-19 patients.

Other governments have chosen different models and in place of “controlled spread,” bet on total lockdown.

Just how influential those models are became apparent over the past 2 weeks in the United Kingdom. … a group at Imperial College London [recommended an approach] not unlike the strategy the Netherlands is pursuing. … But on 16 March, the Imperial College group published a dramatically revised model that concluded—based on fresh data from the United Kingdom and Italy—that even a reduced peak would fill twice as many intensive care beds as estimated previously, overwhelming capacity. The only choice, they concluded, was to go all out on control measures.

But as new data becomes available the “fog of war” is slowly lifting and rekindling the debate between the models.

Another Pandemic Known as Social Justice By Eileen F. Toplansky

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/another_pandemic_known_as_social_justice.html

The National Association of Scholars (NAS) has produced a report titled “Social Justice Education in America.”  Written by David Randall, it defines, describes, and delineates many of the destructive and deceptive ideas behind the innocent-sounding social justice programs that have mushroomed in American institutions of higher learning.

According to this December 2019 report, “in the last twenty years, a generation of academics and administrators has transformed higher education into an engine of progressive political advocacy.”  Identity politics plays a major role in how social justice will be administered.  Social justice activists work to increase the “state’s coercive power” to decide who will get their fair share concerning employment, housing, income, health care, leisure, political power, property, social recognition, and wealth. 

Consequently, social justice buzz words such as food justice, educational poverty, and health equity aim to increase state power “to tax the citizenry to fund progressive spending priorities.” If social justice warriors deem it, then any alleged privilege must be eliminated so that “identity groups defined by categories such as class, race, and gender” will not be oppressed. 

To achieve their aims, universities are watering down requirements in order to attract more women and minorities. This portends “disastrous [repercussions] for scientific innovation and American competitiveness” not to mention the care of sick people.

Once again, Trump was right and the media were wrong By Andrea Widburg

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/once_again_trump_was_right_and_the_media_were_wrong.html

The moment Trump touted his optimism about chloroquine, the media turned it into a poison – but new data say that Trump was right again.

In February, China reported that chloroquine could fight coronavirus, which led to a burst of media optimism. However, when President Trump said he hoped that chloroquine might cure coronavirus, the media instantly turned on the drug. Unsurprisingly, the media were wrong. The lead doctor of the latest study on the drug says chloroquine is so helpful it would be unethical to deny it to control groups.

We first learned about chloroquine in mid-February, when Sun Yanrong, the deputy head of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development, announced that it was one of three drugs that the Chinese had successfully used to treat coronavirus. For a month, the media thought chloroquine could be the answer.

For example, in early March, UPI reported favorably that South Korean experts recommended anti-malarial drugs to treat coronavirus. On March 17, NBC News reported that chloroquine was one “of the options being explored” because it was “useful in blunting the effects of coronavirus.”

Everything changed, though, on March 20 when, in a press conference, President Trump said he was optimistic that chloroquine would be a magic bullet against coronavirus:

But I will say that I am a man that comes from a very positive school when it comes to, in particular, one of these drugs. And we’ll see how it works out, Peter. I’m not saying it will, but I think that people may be surprised.

The first casualty of war, even war against a virus, is truth By Andrea Widburg

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/the_first_casualty_of_war_even_war_against_a_virus_is_truth.html

A few comments about how the leftists’ fanatic hatred for President Trump is erasing truth, facts, and debatable ideas.

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” – John Adams

The media has a fetish that Trump lies. According to the Washington Post (no link, because it’s behind a paywall), Trump has uttered more than 16,000 lies.

Drilling down, though, one discovers that, while Trump has lied (what politician hasn’t?), the WaPo’s humorless and biased habit of taking seriously puffery, exaggeration, and jokes turns everything into a lie. What reasonable people understand is that Trump exaggerates or jokes about things that don’t matter, but sticks with the truth about things that do.

Leftists do something even more serious, which is to classify as a lie anything with which they disagree. In other words, they set themselves up as the arbiters of absolute truth. From this pedestal, they shout down or completely censor statements they dislike – even if the statement is subjective or reasonably debatable – on the ground that the statement is a “lie.”

To support this tactic, leftists have to resort to blatant lies themselves. For example, when Trump expressed hope that chloroquine would help fight coronavirus, leftists immediately transformed the drug from a longtime, reputable standby into something evil. That’s how we got the “Trump made stupid American people eat fish tank cleaner” lie. And the “Trump made stupid Nigerian people eat fish tank cleaner” lie.

It’s Not a Choice Between Lives or the Economy Roger Kimball *****

https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/28/its-not-a-choice-between-lives-or-the-economy/

““First do no harm.” Dr. Lee is right to warn that the panicked response to this new virus has neglected that age-old medical advice. “Unless,” he notes, “we tighten criteria for recording death due only to the virus (as opposed to it being present in those who died from other conditions), the official figures may show a lot more deaths apparently caused by the virus than [are] actually the case. What then? How do we measure the health consequences of taking people’s lives, jobs, leisure and purpose away from them to protect them from an anticipated threat? Which causes the least harm?”

President Trump has shown great leadership during this manufactured crisis. Let’s hope he continues to ponder his observation that we do not want to get ourselves into a situation in which the cure is worse than the disease.

There seem to be shortages of everything these days, not least a shortage of commentary on the COVID-19 virus, also known as the Chinese virus, the Wuhan flu, known to some as the Chinese Communist Party virus, or the CCP virus for short.

Since there has been so little discussion of this disease in the news or in the blogosphere, I thought I would weigh in with a word or two.

Regular readers will know that I have already, these past few weeks, had occasion to say something about this disease, and the reaction to the disease, here and at other venues. I seem to be in a distinct minority in thinking that the best reaction to the disease was not furnished by the protagonist of Edvard Munch’s “The Scream.”

Let me begin, therefore, by acknowledging that this new virus can make people, especially older people, and most particularly older with other health problems very sick indeed.

COVID-19 is the big and nastier brother of SARS, another Chinese import, which made its way around the world in the early 2000s and killed nearly 800 people. “SARS” stands for “Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome,” which can be the dreaded effect of COVID-19 infection and which explains why you are hearing so much about medical ventilators at the moment.

Study Raises Hope That Blood Plasma Can Treat Coronavirus Patients Chuck Ross

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/28/blood-serum-coronavirus-cure/

A preliminary study released Friday found that blood serum from people who recovered from coronavirus was effective at treating critically ill patients, raising hope that the technique will curtail a pandemic that has already killed more than 30,000 people around the globe.

The study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, looked at only five patients, and the authors of the report acknowledged the need for more extensive research. But it showed promising results, and health officials have already expressed optimism that blood transfers can be used to fight the new coronavirus strain.

“That’s one of our top priorities,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top expert on infectious disease, said in a March 20 interview regarding clinical trials for convalescent serum.

Fauci expressed confidence in the technique because it has proved effective during other pandemics, including the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 and the SARS outbreak in 2003.

All five patients in the study, conducted in Shenzhen, China, have dramatically improved since receiving injections of blood plasma from recovered patients.

The patients, who ranged in age from 36 to 65, were all on ventilators suffering from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) when the were provided plasma treatments.

Second French Study by Dr. Raoult finds Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin Helped EVERY PATIENT in Study Group of 80 Minus One (VIDEO) By Jim Hoft

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/huge-second-french-study-by-dr-raoult-finds-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-helped-every-patient-in-study-group-of-80-minus-one-video/

This time Dr. Raoult administered hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to 80 patients and observed improvement in EVERY CASE except for a very sick 86-year-old with an advanced form of coronavirus infection.

This is very promising news once again from Dr. Didier Raoult.

Uncertainty in a Bleak Moment by Amir Taheri

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15813/uncertainty-bleak-moment

Uncertainty may also be affecting politics in Iran, where the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei may have slowed down his bid for exclusive hold on power, in the hope that Hassan Rouhani, the hapless president, will end up carrying the can for the disaster caused by the pandemic.

On positive note, the pandemic may have slowed down India’s tragic rush towards a major Hindu-Muslim civil war that threatened to tear its democracy apart.

If the best we hoped for a few months ago didn’t happen, there is no reason why the worst that we now fear may come to pass. The beauty of uncertainty is that it works both ways.

Regardless of its denouement, the current coronavirus crisis may end up affecting the authority of the political, economic, media and scientific elites who shape world public opinion. The function of the elites, and their claim to legitimacy, has been linked to their ability to create certainty, in defiance of all and sundry Cassandras.

However, the current crisis, which struck like thunder out of the blue, has reasserted the evanescence, even the uncertainty, of human affairs. Just a few weeks ago the received wisdom was that stock exchanges will continue to move upwards while US President Donald J. Trump would sail to a second term and the post-Brexit European Union would settle for a period of anemic growth on the edge of recession. Globally, the elites peddled the certainty of business as usual.

And, yet, what we now have is uncertainty on a degree not seen in recent memory. Already the Brexit agenda in Europe is delayed, if not actually derailed, as British Premier Boris Johnson’s stiff upper lip is less impressive under a surgical mask. With French airplanes ferrying abandoned Brits back home from the four corners of the globe and British aircraft providing the same service to European tourists, the old union, cursed by the Brexiters, does not look as dead as Boris hoped.

Turkey: Pressures, Attacks, and Discrimination against Christians by Uzay Bulut

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15789/turkey-christians-attacks-discrimination

When Protestants introduce themselves to the authorities as a church, they receive warnings that they are not legal and may be closed down.

In 2019, however, many members of the foreign clergy, as well as church members, were deported, refused residence permits, or denied entry visas into Turkey — as in previous years.

Some textbooks also target Christian communities. “Missionary Activity” continues to be a heading under the section related to “National Threats” in the eighth grade elementary school textbook entitled, Revolutionary History and Kemalism. This teaching continues to be referenced in supplementary textbooks and tests related to missionary activity being considered a “national threat”.

Turkey’s Association of Protestant Churches has released its 2019 “Human Rights Violations Report” detailing the state of religious freedom in the country.

The report sheds light on problems Protestant Christians faced in Turkey in 2019. These included barring foreign Protestants from entering Turkey for no other reason than their faith, as well as the inability of Christians to train their own religious workers.

One major difficulty for Protestant Christians in Turkey is that the Protestant community is not recognized as a legal entity.

According to the report, the Protestant community has mostly tried to solve this problem by establishing associations or becoming a representative of an already existing association. Associations and foundations, however, are not accepted as a “church” or a “place of worship.” The Protestants, therefore, cannot benefit from the advantages given to officially recognized places of worship. When Protestants introduce themselves to the authorities as a church, they receive warnings that they are not legal and may be closed down. On March 21, in Bolu, for example, a house church used by Iranian refugees was sealed off by the Bolu Governorate.

He Simply “Hates Christians”: The Persecution of Christians: January 2020 by Raymond Ibrahim

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15814/persecution-of-christians-january

Boko Haram… released another execution video. In it, a masked Muslim child holding a pistol appears standing behind a bound and kneeling hostage, later identified as Ropvil Daciya Dalep, a 22-year-old Christian… kidnapped on January 9 while traveling to his university, where he majored in biology. After chanting in Arabic and launching into an anti-Christian diatribe, the Muslim child proceeds to shoot Ropvil several times in the back of the head. — Independent Catholic News, January 23, 2020; Nigeria.

On January 2, Islamic gunmen abducted Reverend Lawan Andimi, a pastor … in Nigeria. After the terrorists demanded an exorbitant ransom for his release—two million euros, which his church and family simply could not raise—they beheaded the married father-of-nine…. — Morning Star News, January 21, 2020; Nigeria.

“Since the government and its apologists are claiming the killings have no religious undertones, why are the terrorists and herdsmen targeting the predominantly Christian communities and Christian leaders?” — The International Center for Investigative Reporting, January 21, 2020; Nigeria.

After Muhammad ‘Awad, 32, was arrested and questioned as to why he tried to murder Rafiq Karam, 56, he confessed that he did not know him, but that he simply “hates Christians.” — Coptic Solidarity, January 21, 2020; Egypt.

The Slaughter of Christians in Nigeria

During several separate incidents, militant Muslims—whether Fulani herdsmen, Boko Haram, or generic terrorists—continued to attack and massacre several Christians.