Coronavirus Is Not 20+ Times as Deadly as the Flu Alex Berenson
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1253711249084383232.html?refreshed=yes
Wrong both ways, for several reasons.
1/ The flu case fatality rate is calculated off a huge base – 60 million Americans in 2017/18 – and flu deaths may be undercounted for the same reason coronavirus deaths are supposedly undercounted – they mainly occur in old, sick people.
2/ We have a VACCINE for the flu. It is not perfect, but it can sharply reduce infections in some years, and it is generally widely distributed, especially to the people most at risk. That suppresses both the CFR and IFR for the flu.
3/ The 21% NYC antibody figure is likely low, both because it doesn’t foot with plausible figures from other places (generally lower, but in places where deaths have been far lower), and because it takes time for people to develop antibodies, so the figure usually rises anyway.
4/ NYC and NYS seem to have made counterproductive decisions, including heavy ventilator use and sending elderly COVID patients to nursing homes (!). Also, some NYC hospitals faced serious strain in late March (unlike almost anywhere else in the US). Hospital strain is dangerous.
5/ Add all this up, and the COVID death rate will likely settle into the 0.25%-0.4% range (1 in 250 people infected to 1 in 400). Far from 20 times higher than flu. Meanwhile, the median age of death is 78-80. And unlike the flu, #SARSCoV2 is basically not dangerous to children.
6/ As long as supposedly serious people are saying things like coronavirus is 20+ times as deadly as the flu, we’re going to have a hard time getting out of this mess.
Alex Berenson@AlexBerenson
As long as supposedly serious people are saying things like coronavirus is 20+ times as deadly as the flu, we’re going to have a hard time getting out of this mess.
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