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April 2020

After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models Michael Fumento

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/18/after-repeated-failures-its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/

“Assuming it’s possible to model an epidemic at all, any that the mainstream press relays will have been designed to promote panic. Take it from Fauci, who early on so eagerly employed them – they are to be ignored. Now and forever.”

The … crisis we face is unparalleled in modern times,” said the World Health Organization’s assistant director, while its director general proclaimed it “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.” This was based on a CDC computer model projection predicting as many as 1.4 million deaths from just two countries. 

So when did they say this about COVID-19? Trick question: It was actually about the Ebola virus in Liberia and Sierra Leone five years ago, and the ultimate death toll was under 8,000.

With COVID-19 having peaked (the highest date was April 4), despite the best efforts of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to increase numbers by first saying any death with the virus could be considered a death from the virus and then again this week by saying a positive test isn’t even needed, you can see where this is going.

Since the AIDS epidemic, people have been pumping out such models with often incredible figures. For AIDS, the Public Health Service announced (without documenting) there would be 450,000 cases by the end of 1993, with 100,000 in that year alone. The media faithfully parroted it. There were 17,325 by the end of that year, with about 5,000 in 1993. SARS (2002-2003) was supposed to kill perhaps “millions,” based on analyses. It killed 744 before disappearing.

Trump to Give Commencement to West Point; Pence Delivering Speech to Air Force Academy By Zachary Stieber

https://www.theepochtimes.com/trump-to-give-commencement-to-west-point-pence-delivering-speech-at-air-force-academy_3317096.html

President Donald Trump said he will give a commencement speech at West Point, a U.S. military academy in New York.

Trump told reporters in Washington Friday that cadets will be spread out to comply with social distancing guidelines amid the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, a novel coronavirus that emerged from mainland China last year.

“I understand they’ll have distancing, they’ll have some big distance, so it will be very different than it ever looked. Do I like the look? No, I don’t,” he said.

Eventually, graduations will return to normal, with people “nice and tight,” he added.

Pelosi ‘Satisfied’ with Biden Campaign’s Response to Sexual Assault Allegation By Zachary Stieber

https://www.theepochtimes.com/pelosi-satisfied-with-biden-campaigns-reponse-to-sexual-assault-allegation_3317170.html#

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), one of the top Democrats in Congress, said she accepted a statement from presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign in response to a sexual assault allegation made by a former Biden staffer.

Tara Reade, 56, filed a lawsuit against Biden, 77, last week accusing him of sexually assaulting her at the U.S. Capitol in 1993. Reade said her impetus for filing the suit was the harassment she received since coming forward in April 2019 with allegations against her former boss.

In a statement sent to news outlets, Biden campaign spokeswoman Kate Bedingfield said: “Women have a right to tell their story, and reporters have an obligation to rigorously vet those claims. We encourage them to do so, because these accusations are false.” Biden himself has not addressed the matter and has not been asked about it by reporters yet.

During an appearance on MSNBC’s “The Beat” on Friday night, host Ari Melber asked Pelosi about the “accusation of misconduct.” Was she satisfied with the response?

“Yes, I am,” Pelosi said.

It’s Time for the White House to Focus on Drug Approvals . By Ryan Streeter

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/18/its_time_for_the_white_house_to_focus_on_drug_approvals_142941.html

In this COVID-19 era, it’s the scientists who will ultimately get us back to work. It is time for the Trump administration to acknowledge this and adjust its public communication strategy accordingly. It is hard to envision a scenario looking like the “normal” we all crave until we have therapeutics to protect us from the coronavirus’s effects as we await a vaccine to prevent us from catching it. Once we all know we can take a drug that will minimize symptoms and possibly prevent infection in the first place, we can interact safely in ways that even a ramped-up testing regime will not allow.

Daily White House briefings, and as a result the media and the American public, have been fixated up to now on the response to the pandemic from the administration and Congress. These updates primarily focus on three of the four main categories of activity: federal aid to businesses and displaced workers, needed supplies and equipment for our health care system, and the social distancing regimen complete with handwashing and homemade masks. The two medical faces of this crisis, Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, have concentrated on the last two and keep faithfully explaining what the administration is doing, or should be doing, to increase testing, equip frontline workers, and ultimately flatten the curve. 

We hear much less about the fourth category of activity, that is, the race to find a therapeutic solution to combat the virus while we await a vaccine. Therapeutics include anti-viral drugs that inhibit the coronavirus and antibody therapies that boost immunity to the virus, and possibly off-label use of existing drugs. 

Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection By Adam Shaw

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-model-estimates-us-deaths-down

A key coronavirus model has lowered its estimate of total U.S. deaths in its latest projection of how many will die due to the contagious virus.

The revision will likely fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to combat the spread are working.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 (with an estimate range of 30,188 to 175,965) to just over 60,308 (with an estimate range of 34,063 to 140,381) in an update published Friday.

The institute said that change was partially driven by both higher estimates in states like New York and New Jersey, and lower projections in states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Georgia and Florida.

“By incorporating the trend in cases alongside COVID-19 deaths in our model, many locations are now predicted to have longer peaks and are taking longer to move down the epidemic curve to zero deaths,” a statement from the institute said. “Subsequently, these places now have higher projections for cumulative COVID-19 deaths through the first wave.”

It’s our right — and duty — to question those deciding America’s fate By Douglas MacKinnon

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/493195-its-our-right-and-duty-to-question-those-deciding-americas-fate

When in the United States of America did it become objectionable, or considered outright wrong, to question the wisdom and policies of our politicians, bureaucrats and “experts”?  If “we are all in this together,” as people have been declaring about the fight against COVID-19, then shouldn’t we all have a say in our collective fate? That should be the right of every American citizen, even those who disagree with states’ shelter-at-home and business closure orders.

When did it become wrong, or a crime punishable by arrest, for Americans to peacefully protest a governor’s stay-at-home order, as happened recently in Raleigh, N.C.? Evidently our right to peacefully protest has become a “non-essential activity” to be broken up by the police. In Lansing, Mich., protesters against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home order used vehicles for their “Operation Gridlock.”

To curb the spread of COVID-19 in America, we have temporarily surrendered our lifestyles, livelihoods, life savings, mental health and even our very freedoms to the dictates of politicians, bureaucrats and public health experts. “For our own good,” they have put in place orders to control the movement and actions of most of the nation’s 330 million people.  

No one can deny that COVID-19 is a dangerous, highly-infectious virus. That said, the solutions to curb the contagion seem to be holding Americans hostage. Are we still allowed to contrast what’s happening with this pandemic to those of the past and ask logical questions?

Keeping the coronavirus death toll in perspective By Heather Mac Donald

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/493370-keeping-the-coronavirus-death-toll-in-perspective

As governors and mayors debate when to lift their coronavirus stay-at-home orders, public health experts predict a flood of deaths should businesses be allowed to reopen before universal testing or a vaccine for the disease is available. These are the same experts whose previous apocalyptic models of coronavirus fatalities and shortages of hospital beds and ventilators have proved wildly inaccurate. It may be useful to look at some numbers for perspective. 

As of 3 p.m. Eastern on April 16, there were 30,920 coronavirus deaths in the U.S. New York state accounted for 14,198 — or 46 percent — of those deaths. New York City accounted for 11,477 of New York state’s deaths and 37 percent of national deaths. This week, New York City started counting deaths as coronavirus fatalities if the patient had not been tested for the disease but was suspected postmortem of having it. This relaxed standard increased the U.S. death count by 17 percent. Other jurisdictions will inevitably follow suit. 

The national coronavirus deaths represent a death rate of 9.4 per 100,000 of the U.S. population. Take out the New York fatalities and the New York share of the national population, and the coronavirus death rate for the rest of the country is 5.4 per 100,000 of the U.S. population.

Coronavirus Comes to Academia: Don’t Give Them a Dime Until They Cut Their Bloated Administrations By David Randall

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/coronavirus-comes-to-academia-but-dont-give-them-a-dime-until-they-do-this/

America’s leading universities have begun to respond to the financial consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. Duke University will “pause” construction projects, new expenditures, and hiring, and freeze salaries (with the possibility of a bonus for employees earning less than $50,000). Princeton University will suspend faculty and staff salary increases, freezing new hiring save in exceptional circumstances, giving notice that the number of temporary, casual, and contracted positions is likely to plummet at the end of the semester, asking managers to reassign staff whose regular jobs are face-to-face to take on new tasks, and cutting all “non-essential spending.” Stanford University has frozen new hires and some of its top administrators have taken pay cuts—the provost and the president by 20% and other senior administrators by 5-10%.

These spending pauses and hiring freezes are partly a good idea. Colleges and universities need to be fiscally prudent as a depression suddenly looms. But they also freeze in place massively overgrown education bureaucracies. Ohio State University employs 88 diversity-related staff, which is 88 more than it needs. Harvard employs more than 50 Title IX coordinators, which is also surplus by 50. Sustainability, Student Success, Student Life, Residential Life, Community Engagement, First Year Experience, Multiculturalism, Equity, Inclusion—America’s universities, from the Ivies to the community colleges, possess vast bureaucracies that at best do nothing to promote education and for the most part, actively work to prevent it.

“Hiring freeze” is another way to say, “nobody gets fired.” And an awful lot of bureaucrats in higher education need firing.

Stacey Abrams on Voting Rights, COVID-19, and Being Vice President “I would be an excellent running mate.” By Melissa Harris-Perry

https://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a32132819/stacey-abrams-on-voting-rights-covid-19-and-being-vice-president/

Experienced politicians know there is a right way to answer questions about pursuing higher office. Be demure. Redirect. Convey vague interest while insisting never to have given it serious consideration. But Stacey Abrams does not give the expected answer when I ask if she would accept an offer from former vice president Joe Biden to serve as his 2020 running mate. “Yes. I would be honored,” Abrams says. “I would be an excellent running mate. I have the capacity to attract voters by motivating typically ignored communities. I have a strong history of executive and management experience in the private, public, and nonprofit sectors. I’ve spent 25 years in independent study of foreign policy. I am ready to help advance an agenda of restoring America’s place in the world. If I am selected, I am prepared and excited to serve.”

Abrams’s direct response betrays ambition, makes verifiable claims, and establishes outcomes to which she could later be held accountable. By normal political rules, it is the wrong answer. But as Abrams and I talk in March in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, it is clear that normal political rules no longer apply. I’m asking her about an unknown political future even as the future itself is frighteningly unknowable: schools closing, businesses shuttering, and Americans sheltering against a raging virus we can barely fathom. Amid this chaotic unpredictability, Abrams’s candor is disarming and comforting.

Into the Unknown

In the March 15 televised debate, Biden committed to choosing a woman as his running mate. Less than a week later, the progressive strategy network Way to Win released survey data indicating Stacey Abrams was Biden’s strongest potential lieutenant. A graduate of Spelman College, the LBJ School of Public Affairs at UT Austin, and Yale Law School, Abrams made history as the first woman to lead a political party in Georgia’s General Assembly and the first African American to lead the Georgia House of Representatives. In 2018, she pursued history again, mounting an ultimately unsuccessful campaign to become America’s first black woman governor. Her defeat came amid election irregularities and allegations of voter suppression. Abrams refused to concede the close race to her Republican opponent, Brian Kemp. “I’m supposed to say nice things and accept my fate,” Abrams writes in the preface to her New York Times best-seller, Lead From the Outside. “I refused to be gaslighted into throwing away my power, diminishing my voice.”

Joe Biden says he’s assembling transition team to prepare for his administration Naomi Lim

www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/joe-biden-says-hes-assembling-transition-team-to-prepare-for-his-administration

Joe Biden has begun putting together a transition team, which may decide to circulate the names of some Cabinet nominees before November’s general election.

“I don’t want to say we started thinking about it a month ago, we did, because that sounds like I was certain this was going to happen, that I would be the nominee. I don’t want it to sound like that, but it has to happen, and that’s why the transition team is already being put together,” Biden told about 150 donors during his second virtual fundraiser Thursday.

The presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee’s announcement suggests the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator is looking past his fall fight with President Trump and making tentative preparations for governing.

While Biden declined to say who was in charge of the transition team’s selection, he indicated he was considering elevating some administration roles focused on global health security and pandemics, as well as climate change, to Cabinet-level spots.